BayBreeze Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the potomac river just above washington dc this evening is running at a rate of 2750 cubic feet per second. the gage height associated with this is 2.98 feet. this is welll below av,erage for this date. the elevation of the gage i believe is 37.95 msl. if you add the stage to that you get the level of the water above msl. flood stage at this site is 10 feet gage height. meaning bad things start to happen at 47.95 msl. any questions please ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Was there a recent rise due to the recent melting? (obviously not from today... lol lag)... Perhaps some changes in the ice jamming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 How much rain is needed in the following time frames to flood the Potomac-- 3 hours, 6 Hours, 12, Hours, 24 Hours. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the potomac river just above washington dc this evening is running at a rate of 2750 cubic feet per second. the gage height associated with this is 2.98 feet. this is welll below av,erage for this date. the elevation of the gage i believe is 37.95 msl. if you add the stage to that you get the level of the water above msl. flood stage at this site is 10 feet gage height. meaning bad things start to happen at 47.95 msl. any questions please ask. How many servings of wing wah would it take to clog and subsequently flood the Potomac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How's the Puhtaapsco holding up ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 How's the Puhtaapsco holding up ? so many questions. i don't know where to start. the patapsico is just fine. not enough precip or snow to melt to expect problems anytime soon. about the only places that flood in the non tidal portion i believe are ellicott city and oella. the usgs operated a gage that covered all this at a place called hollofield. it was yanked due to lack of funding a few years ago. we wanted to turn it into a river forecast point, but you cant do that if a gage does not exist. same thing happened at shepherdstown wv. we keep forecasts going there during high water from mid atlantic river forecast center taking readings upstream and downstream when flood or near flood conditions are expected. i do not know the status as of now. it may have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 How many servings of wing wah would it take to clog and subsequently flood the Potomac? this would be like an ice jam. we have had a couple of those. during my career the rappahannock down by fredericksburg had one. there was also one in williamsport md on the potomac. here is what i recommend for your study. go to the monocacy at frederick md and build a wing wah pile at least 15 feet high. this will cause the river to flood if the wing wah jam is strong enough to hold back water. if it has to be on the potomac itself use point of rocks and build it 16 feet high. flooding is minor, non life threatening and you prove your theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Was there a recent rise due to the recent melting? (obviously not from today... lol lag)... Perhaps some changes in the ice jamming? none that i have noticed. was up at my moms before the latest event and it appeared low. being fed by underground seepage and light melt from out west. west of the allegany front did get to above freezing for short peiods of time. spots like frostburg kitzmiller etc that still have large snow packs. plus the lighter pack that extends further east in the basin. big potomac flood = rain plus dewpoints above 65 and alot of snow as close to washington as you can get. or a decaying tropical system moving north through the area (agnes, fran 1996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 How much rain is needed in the following time frames to flood the Potomac-- 3 hours, 6 Hours, 12, Hours, 24 Hours. Thanks, http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Water/index.shtml#ffg it goes piecemeal. i was looking for headwater guidance on there. a better example of basin level 1-24 hour guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 for huff.. http://www.srh.noaa.....php?pil=FFHVA2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this would be like an ice jam. we have had a couple of those. during my career the rappahannock down by fredericksburg had one. there was also one in williamsport md on the potomac. here is what i recommend for your study. go to the monocacy at frederick md and build a wing wah pile at least 15 feet high. this will cause the river to flood if the wing wah jam is strong enough to hold back water. if it has to be on the potomac itself use point of rocks and build it 16 feet high. flooding is minor, non life threatening and you prove your theory. I think this might classify as a destructive action, though. So I will have to simulate via computer models. WWPM (Wing Wah Prediction Model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think this might classify as a destructive action, though. So I will have to simulate via computer models. WWPM (Wing Wah Prediction Model). please let us know your result. omg, my posting on the weather side is leading to a hydro study. ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so many questions. i don't know where to start. the patapsico is just fine. not enough precip or snow to melt to expect problems anytime soon. about the only places that flood in the non tidal portion i believe are ellicott city and oella. the usgs operated a gage that covered all this at a place called hollofield. it was yanked due to lack of funding a few years ago. we wanted to turn it into a river forecast point, but you cant do that if a gage does not exist. same thing happened at shepherdstown wv. we keep forecasts going there during high water from mid atlantic river forecast center taking readings upstream and downstream when flood or near flood conditions are expected. i do not know the status as of now. it may have changed. What a shame we lose sites for a lack of dollars. Seems silly with all the money that's available. I drove on that road that runs along the river in Ellicott City during the 10/2005 flooding. Water rushing off the hill to the east was flowing across it, and for a few hairy moments I thought I was going sideways into the river. Stupid move, but such is the life of a mid-atlantic hydrology thrill-seeker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 please let us know your result. omg, my posting on the weather side is leading to a hydro study. ftw! Maybe I can get Cory to build me a Wing Wah beast to model this. I don't think my home computer will be able to handle it. In all seriousness though - do you see anything significant hydrologically going into spring for our local area - I realize it's a long way out but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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