am19psu Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The BoM is picking up on this too. They're forecasting the monsoon trough to develop over the weekend, which usually spits out a TC in short order after forming down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 we're on pace for zero storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 we're on pace for zero storms It isn't even Christmas yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Almost time to start F-5ing every half hour on the satellite map... A little over a week away per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The SST anomalies in the SPAC just off the NE coast of Australia are below normal? Is that normal during a La Nina? I thought those should be warm close to the coast during a Nina and further east during a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The SST anomalies in the SPAC just off the NE coast of Australia are below normal? Is that normal during a La Nina? I thought those should be warm close to the coast during a Nina and further east during a Nino I'm not sure what the subsurface looks like, but my guess is that the cool SSTAs there are because of a series of extratropical storms that moved through that area in November. It's been warming up quite a bit over the last two weeks. I don't think it will be a significant factor in the Aussie season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Its consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The Yurpian is not without support from other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it looks like the first of the monsoonal litter is being born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I brought a Cat 1 (S-S) in on Saturday just north of Exmouth in my client forecast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I brought a Cat 1 (S-S) in on Saturday just north of Exmouth in my client forecast this morning. I knew I should have gone io in albys forecast contest...instead I went spac and will get burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 IDW10800Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyWestern AustraliaTropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western RegionIssued at 2:00pm WST on Monday the 13th of December 2010Valid until midnight WST Thursday Existing Cyclones in the Western region:Nil. Potential Cyclones:At midday WST a weak low was near 13S102E, around 450 kilometres south west ofChristmas Island, embedded in a monsoon trough. It is possible that the low willdevelop into a tropical cyclone by late Tuesday, or more likely on Wednesday orThursday, by which time it is expected to be moving towards the south southeast. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region: Tuesday :Moderate Wednesday :High Thursday :High Another tropical low may develop off the Kimberley coast on Thursday. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region: Tuesday :Very Low Wednesday :Very Low Thursday :Low There are no other significant lows expected in the region during the next threedays. NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being atropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%, Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50% The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E andsouth of Latitude 10S.Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at: www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 cherry time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 BOM down to a Mandarin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 what is normal for december there? similar to june here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 what is normal for december there? similar to june here? What is LC saying about the Aussie season? Should we expect him to bust by less than seven storms this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What is LC saying about the Aussie season? Should we expect him to bust by less than seven storms this time? No QLD landfalls this season. Murray river signal is not favorable. Shacks in the w part of the continent might get some action though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What is LC saying about the Aussie season? Should we expect him to bust by less than seven storms this time? LC made the greatest call in the history of tropical forecasting calling for no cane landfalls in the US. lets get back to the question. is december similar to our june? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 LC made the greatest call in the history of tropical forecasting calling for no cane landfalls in the US. Right for the wrong reasons. He was atrocious all summer. lets get back to the question. is december similar to our june? Read the thread, hun. It's been answered already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hey, guys! Sorry I've been so absent from this thread. These kinds of business trips kind of suck me in. I haven't even entered Alby's contest yet, as I haven't had time to do the necessary research. You guys-- kush, Adam, Ed, etc.-- should enter it, too! (He indicated the deadline was 08 Dec, but I'm wondering if he might give us a small grace period.) I'll be returning to Prague on Friday, at which time I will return to my regular wx-nerd state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Monsoon lows FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well JTWC has issued a cyclone formation alert for the area off Australia in the Indian Ocean, so basically if its still about the same by 06Z tomorrow they start warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well JTWC has issued a cyclone formation alert for the area off Australia in the Indian Ocean, so basically if its still about the same by 06Z tomorrow they start warnings. The Aussies have a better handle on the situation (big surprise). Here is their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 activity? GFS also advertising an IO long tracker into madagascar as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 investorama...but they're all kind fairly lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 investorama...but they're all kind fairly lame. GFS and CMC have been advertising 92S developing, but the MJO sucks and there is nothing else to set off cyclogenesis. Plus, the Euro has shown nothing developing and it's never wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS and CMC have been advertising 92S developing, but the MJO sucks and there is nothing else to set off cyclogenesis. Plus, the Euro has shown nothing developing and it's never wrong 94 looks to at least have some cyclonic curvature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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