am19psu Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 94 looks to at least have some cyclonic curvature It might have a chance once it gets to the GoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Tasha was a complete waste of time. Speaking of wastes of time, it looks like there may be a landcane late this week in the Kimberley which will then try to move back into the Indian Ocean. These systems usually end up teasing us more than developing into anything particularly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 OK... I feel like I owe an apology to everyone for neglecting this thread the last month. Business travel, etc., tore me from my real passions. Now I'm back in the groove and ready to water this thread again everyday! In the news... A short-lived, lame-azz, Cat-1 cyclone-- Tasha-- formed in the Coral Sea and the unwound as it moved ashore over Queensland last week. So, we've officially had our first cyclone. But the season-- forecast by all to be a biggie-- sure hasn't started with a bang. Currently, there's a trough way out in Indian Ocean and a weak, slow-moving low over the Top End-- no exciting prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 There's not even an invest on it, but the landcane I was talking about looks like it is going to happen tomorrow over the Kimberley, then move out over open water by 0z Saturday. Looks like it is going to miss Exmouth as it turns to the west. It's not going to be terribly exciting, but at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 There's not even an invest on it, but the landcane I was talking about looks like it is going to happen tomorrow over the Kimberley, then move out over open water by 0z Saturday. Looks like it is going to miss Exmouth as it turns to the west. It's not going to be terribly exciting, but at least it's something. Oh, hey! What's up? Yeah, the season is starting kind of slow. In a way, it's just like ours: a huge forecast followed by a very slow start. Let's see if their basin goes into turbo mode like ours did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Oh, hey! What's up? Yeah, the season is starting kind of slow. In a way, it's just like ours: a huge forecast followed by a very slow start. Let's see if their basin goes into turbo mode like ours did. The MJO looks like it is going to suck for a good deal of January. I'm not nearly as familiar with cyclogenesis mechanisms down there as I am in the Atlantic, but that can't be a good thing. Hopefully, the interseasonal Nina signal gives us more than just a monsoon trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 The MJO looks like it is going to suck for a good deal of January. I'm not nearly as familiar with cyclogenesis mechanisms down there as I am in the Atlantic, but that can't be a good thing. Hopefully, the interseasonal Nina signal gives us more than just a monsoon trough. Wow-- lame! As I've mentioned in the past, Dec is the first of two peaks in severe-cyclone landfalls-- followed by a lull-- and then a second, bigger peak in Feb/Mar. So, in terms of both the MJO and climatology, it looks like it could be totally lame until Feb. Oh, well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Pretty solid for developing over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 the one last year was better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 All the convection is blowing up over water to the west. Probably not going to be a TC until tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 So this one's becoming mildly interesting: the BoM has initiated advices on the Tropical Low situated over the Kimberley (the one Adam's been following above), and they expect it to become a cyclone as it moves parallel to the Pilbara coast over the next few days. The long-term forecast keeps it offshore-- but close enough to produce gales in the coastal communities. Something to watch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 There might be gales in Exmouth from the system and it looks like we'll get some pretty satellite pictures from it over the weekend. I'd say this has a pretty good shot to get to U.S. Cat 2/3 by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 There might be gales in Exmouth from the system and it looks like we'll get some pretty satellite pictures from it over the weekend. I'd say this has a pretty good shot to get to U.S. Cat 2/3 by Monday. Cool. Any chance it can "pull a George" and turn toward the coast-- or is the pattern set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Cool. Any chance it can "pull a George" and turn toward the coast-- or is the pattern set? The basin is wild and the BOM changes track forecasts more readily than any other agency...i'm sure this will be all over the place before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Cool. Any chance it can "pull a George" and turn toward the coast-- or is the pattern set? It's possible, but not likely. If it slows down enough and the weak s/w currently near 90E can create a weakness, it might pull a left turn. I wouldn't hold my breath though. The GFS shows a landfall a week from now in the Denham/Carnavon area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 The basin is wild and the BOM changes track forecasts more readily than any other agency...i'm sure this will be all over the place before all is said and done. Yeah, that's true. The tracks are always nuts around there for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 It's possible, but not likely. If it slows down enough and the weak s/w currently near 90E can create a weakness, it might pull a left turn. I wouldn't hold my breath though. The GFS shows a landfall a week from now in the Denham/Carnavon area. OK, thanks. A landfall down there gets kind of icep*ssyish-- like something hitting the Mid-Atlantic-- so that GFS scenario is kind of blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 OK, thanks. A landfall down there gets kind of icep*ssyish-- like something hitting the Mid-Atlantic-- so that GFS scenario is kind of blah. That so far out, though. I mean, with the GFS showing that solution, you really can't rule anything out from Exmouth to Perth (that'd be like the Maritimes, right?). I still think a track into the IO is most likely since the s/w isn't that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 That so far out, though. I mean, with the GFS showing that solution, you really can't rule anything out from Exmouth to Perth (that'd be like the Maritimes, right?). I still think a track into the IO is most likely since the s/w isn't that strong. Yeah, totally. I realized-- after I made that post-- that what's significant is that the GFS actually shows a S turn-- and if it happens earlier than depicted there, it would bring some sexier action into the Pilbara. P.S. Yeah, a Perth landfall would be a big zzzzzzzzzz-- some lame-azz transitioning crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wow, just read the Technical Bulletin. The Aussies are way more bearish than me on this. It's going to be small with low shear in the same direction as it's moving. It really ought to go once it develops tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 CIMSS needs to invert their scripts for the southern hemisphere...look at the vorticity product: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 CIMSS needs to invert their scripts for the southern hemisphere...look at the vorticity product: Cyclonic vorticity is negative in the Southern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Cyclonic vorticity is negative in the Southern Hemisphere. I know that things are reversed and understand why it appears that way on the maps, but it would be easy for them to invert some signs and make them look like the NH maps we are used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 The Tropical Low is just about to exit the Kimberley a bit N of Broome, and the BoM has gotten more bullish about it: they now bring it up to 80 kt (10 min) in the next 36 hrs-- a strong Cat 3 on their scale (Cat 2 on ours). It looks like it'll move parallel to the Pilbara coast-- however, it'll pass close enough to warrant Cyclone Warnings for the entire region. The Technical Bulletin remarks: "Being forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water." ("Midget cyclone" is the Aussie term for "microcane". I like our term better-- especially since I invented it. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 lolz The system can't even make it to cyclone status. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It looks to me like they're having as bad a start as we had here in 2004 to the season that was supposed to be active...so bad that NHC named Alex off NC when almost everyone felt or should I say KNEW it was not a hurricane...well it sure turned around quickly after that and that was on 7/31...I guess the equivalent of 1/31 in the SH so they can probably still get an active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 lolz The system can't even make it to cyclone status. Next! Yeah, yesterday you could see multiple centers forming. I'm disappointed in the my MR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 FWIW, 98S would be a tropical storm with 1-min averaging. It's T2.5 with 30 kt 10-min sustained winds. Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Strange that this system really didn't organize much. Any particular reason behind that? It seemed to be under a pretty nice area of pretty weak shear... dry air perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Strange that this system really didn't organize much. Any particular reason behind that? It seemed to be under a pretty nice area of pretty weak shear... dry air perhaps? Its the 2nd one in that area the last 2 weeks that appeared to have great potential and bust, there is something there thats counteracting the environment for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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