natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For OKC/OUN, I'm close to throwing in the towel for a major snowstorm. The warm nose is almost always worse than forecast, so it would take a significant southward shift to put us in the game for that. To me, it's primarily a question of PL vs. ZR. A general rule of thumb for me is that the areas expected to be just too far south for freezing precipitation are the ones who end up getting blasted in the end. In this case, I can envision a crippling ice storm over a 50- or 75-mile wide swath from, say, Ardmore to Fayetteville, with a monumental waste of QPF (a.k.a., mainly sleet) over a large swath NW of there. Of course, it goes without saying that those swaths could shift markedly NW or SE over the next few days. Lived here all my life and couldn't agree more. One possible saving grace is the strength/depth of the cold air being depicted. On the 6z NAM at 84hrs, the spacing between the 0C line and -10C line at 850mb was very tight, indicating deep, arctic air being funneled in. With a 1050-1054 mb high in MT moving south, things should get pretty interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 That is a sharp 850 MB front on the NAM at 72, it's farther SE than it was at 84 on the 00z. Temps are below freezing across most if not all of the area by 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK on that link where do you find the avg of all the ensembles, like the maps you normally post? Ah, the Mean? I use Raleigh's site for that. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Defin good trends on the morning NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ah, the Mean? I use Raleigh's site for that. http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html OK tks. I couldnt think this morning what I was trying to ask for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM shifted SE from it's 00z run. Heavy snow in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Huge shift for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 h78-84 is a thing of beauty - even if it is the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bombs away at 84. The Kuchera snow map is going to be insane. (Twisterdata is running behind so now able to see temps at all levels yet) OKC would get hit hard as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z NAM, 12z NAM, 12z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bombs away at 84. The Kuchera snow map is going to be insane. (Twisterdata is running behind so now able to see temps at all levels yet) OKC would get hit hard as well. Kuchera will have 1 ft + totals in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anybody want to start a petition to lock this run in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of this is snow - NAM 12 hr total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anybody want to start a petition to lock this run in? I second Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Joplin, Tulsa, OKC close to or below freezing at 66. Looks like maybe sleet to snow although it may be all snow. 1+" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just have to keep reminding myself this is just all model fantasy at this point. Is it Monday yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good morning guys just curious to see if al of us in swmo get our arses handed to us with an ice storm like dec92008 ? or of it looks like it is gonna be colder enough higher up to get basically snow through duration of this storm?/ spfld nws says who knows with the track about 30 to 50 miles will be difference but either it is powerful... What are your thoughts everyone ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Joplin, Tulsa, OKC close to or below freezing at 66. Looks like maybe sleet to snow although it may be all snow. 1+" QPF Wow.. could be a nice sheet of ice underneath with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Slightly off-topic, but it's going to get flat cold after this storm passes by. We may not get out of the teens on Wed., and I can't remember the last time that's happened down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good morning guys just curious to see if al of us in swmo get our arses handed to us with an ice storm like dec92008 ? or of it looks like it is gonna be colder enough higher up to get basically snow through duration of this storm?/ spfld nws says who knows with the track about 30 to 50 miles will be difference but either it is powerful... What are your thoughts everyone ??? I'm really scared to say at this point. I will say that models have defin trended colder over the past 12 hrs which puts us in a much better position for snow vs. ice as you know. Until it starts trending back the other way I'm inclined to say more snow. Then there's the fact that in strong systems like this models have a tendency to underestimate the warm air advection part of the equation. I believe there will be a sharp cutoff between massisve snow totals and good totals. I'll take either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lived here all my life and couldn't agree more. One possible saving grace is the strength/depth of the cold air being depicted. On the 6z NAM at 84hrs, the spacing between the 0C line and -10C line at 850mb was very tight, indicating deep, arctic air being funneled in. With a 1050-1054 mb high in MT moving south, things should get pretty interesting! Yeah, that post I made 20 minutes before the 06z NAM came out was really just a challenge to the models to prove me wrong. In all seriousness, while I'm still highly skeptical, it seems there might be a trend towards the baroclinic zone and SLP track orienting a bit more N-S and less E-W, which would favor us out here (sort of like 12/24/09). I sure do hate battling the warm nose above an arctic airmass, though... hell, even Christmas Eve saw us dealing with PL for longer than expected. Gah... and I really was just about ready to pin all my hopes on ice last night, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Twister really slow this morning for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think this is the updated Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, that post I made 20 minutes before the 06z NAM came out was really just a challenge to the models to prove me wrong. In all seriousness, while I'm still highly skeptical, it seems there might be a trend towards the baroclinic zone and SLP track orienting a bit more N-S and less E-W, which would favor us out here (sort of like 12/24/09). I sure do hate battling the warm nose above an arctic airmass, though... hell, even Christmas Eve saw us dealing with PL for longer than expected. Gah... and I really was just about ready to pin all my hopes on ice last night, too. We have definitely been burned by the warm nose many times before. Good point on the N-S baroclinic zone, I do remember that from 12/24/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With the colder temps N OK getting raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Raw Cobb/Bufkit spits out.... JLN: 0.84" of sleet..... 9.5" snow. OKC: Freezing dizzle at the start... 0.29" of sleet... 14.6" snow TUL: Freezing drizzle at the start... 0.51" sleet... 12.4" snow Monett.... a big mess....... 0.21 freezing rain... 0.74" sleet...... 9.4" snow Springfield: a big mess... 0.22 freezing rain... 0.89" sleet... 12.5" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Raw Cobb/Bufkit spits out.... JLN: 0.84" of sleet..... 9.5" snow. OKC: Freezing dizzle at the start... 0.29" of sleet... 14.6" snow TUL: Freezing drizzle at the start... 0.51" sleet... 12.4" snow Monett.... a big mess....... 0.21 freezing rain... 0.74" sleet...... 9.4" snow Springfield: a big mess... 0.22 freezing rain... 0.89" sleet... 12.5" snow Trying to find that petition as we speak..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can't believe the NAN ,16 to 18 inches for BARTLESVILLE? http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I guess I can live with the 12z Nam. To bad it wont be anything close to this bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 +SN over Tulsa and OKC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KTUL.txthttp://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KOKC.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.