Novtorcher Disco Thread

[powderfreak]

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985.

I feel like we are going to beat that.

This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985.

I feel like we are going to beat that.

This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

not 1" due to the wind, correct? :x

[Torch Tiger]

what a winter

[Torch Tiger]

enjoy the nice weather 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Canada is permachinooked in the extended

Quite consistent pattern w/ very strong El Nino.  The biggest temp anomalies are usually in the Upper MS Vly/Nrn Plains and that's is what this shows well here.  All on track.

That what the MSM and others do not get.  Sure, this type is El Nino is not common, but 1) just b/c something is not common or rare does not mean it is abnormal, 2) very strong El Nino in itself occurs naturally. and 3) the sensible wx that results from it in regions across the globe are completely what is to be expected given other El Ninos like this. This a major problem these days w/ how things are communicated.  Everything is pushed as NOT usual or typical simply b/c it has societal and environment impact.  As if there should never be any or not times it is worse than others?

Has the ATLC HU season been severely suppressed? Yes,  Pacific HU season very active?  Yes.  STJ showing dominance? Yes.  Big rains srn Cali and Desert SW?  Yes.  Miller A tendencies E Coast?  Yes.  I see narrative pushed that due to warming, the wx is becoming more "unforecastable" or "uncertain."  Noting could be further from the truth!

And this notion that El Nino gets "worse" w/ warming.  So why in the last 30 years, base conditions have become more La Nina?  See attachment.  I was thinking it may be AMO connected, but it was more El Nino base 1950-1969 when we were still in the favorable AMO phase for big ATLC HUs, and since 1995 that same AMO phase for ATLC HUs has existed, yet more base La Nina, so any direct correlations do not work here.
 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

 

"Upstate CT"???   LOL

How about "Downeaster?" as in Alexa!

 

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You can still get some cooler air, even with above normal temps in Canada

@CoastalWx needs to be reminded that in very strong El Nino winters, the only real cold air shots for the CONUS are in the Northeast! 

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models come out earlier tomorrow 

And one less hour of diurnal heating!  Seriously, I see that in the spring when chase season ramps up...one extra hour of heating!  I'd like to say it just trolls  or engagement bait, but not always.

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You need to study Canada climo.  Canada's plus 5 in Jan is still mid 20s

Rea Point, NU at -23.4°C (-10.1°F)

• Calgary, AB: -2°C (28°F), freezing fog

• Edmonton, AB: -5°C (23°F

It reminds me when the MSM says, "super warming in Antarctica when temps 50 F above avg!  Sounds crazy, right?  But when your avg temps are so ridiculously cold, even +50 F is still cold.  Vostok's mean month temp ranges from a high of -32 F to a low of  -67 F.  So do the math!

Also, in the polar regions, wild above and below temps are much more common here merely due to its climate.  And in typically clueless or disingenuous fashion, I have seen some take a temp anomalies in deg C, and forget to subtract 32 from it for the F equivalent.  In other words, 30 C then will be temps 86 F above avg!  Anything to push the hot narrative.
 

[vortex95]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985.

I feel like we are going to beat that.

This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

Last year record early depth on Mansfield.   I was optimistic for the winter, but @CoastalWx did he typical, "good for them, but NNE is irrelevant to me!"  And then look what happened for the winter!   "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" several times for his vista outside his home in Weymouth!

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where is this cold air coming from with Canada so hot ?

This guy "Northeast Wx Alert" on FB has been pushing big cold for the NEUS this winter all along, and as soon as the models shows it cold in the long range, he jumps all over it and says things such as  "as I was saying" w/ endless patting himself on the back.  See the post below.

What is funny is that is a 10-day fcst, and he acts like he always "wins" here, when it hasn't even happened yet!

Classic weasel fcst statement: "This is precisely the possibility I have been dissing."  Using "precise" and "possibility" in the same sentence when talking about a 10-day fcst???

Well, that the problem with this guy, he is *always* talking about the long range and what *might* happen, never the short range or what *is* happening.  Never talks about verification of his forecasts, just always hedging and wording things  in generic and vague terms w/ about as classic word salad as you can get that is verbose that says nothing, or nothing anyone could not say and have no skills in forecasting, just good w/ the word hustle!

I've called him out several times in the past w/ reasonable and valid statements about his style and wording, and of course, all the defensive, and he eventually blocked me.  That's tell-tale sign of a hustler/poser or someone who is closed-minded and about ME ME ME!  They block you when they know they are cornered and can't rebut/retort from valid statements that give sold criticism.

He talks about blocking and the -NAO.  Just b/c it gets cold in the NEUS does not mean there is blocking and a -NAO.  In such a strong El Nino pattern, the STJ dominates and things are very progressive, so Greenland blocking is largely absent.  There is blocking, but it is in central Canada, not the same thing for CONUS sensible wx!

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Last year record early depth on Mansfield.   

Yup, and this Nino is doing exactly what is expected.

The Super Nino composites for depth on Mansfield are not in any way encouraging, ha.  Some bottom barrel seasons.

[vortex95]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, and this Nino is doing exactly what is expected.

The Super Nino composites for depth on Mansfield are not in any way encouraging, ha.  Some bottom barrel seasons.

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised.  One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows.  Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred!  So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some.  Why not us this time? 

And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event.  Like Dec 23. 1997!  And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016.

And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE.  Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025!
https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16