Noah get the boat, the wet pattern begins. Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Have any of these stupid precip outlooks actually verified when they show above normal precip this year?  Has NOAA hired Bastardi for their precip forecasting?

 

I'm still holding to my late June derecho and trend toward wet weather.  It's still too early. 

Cansips has it turning wet, though that's a seasonal forecast.

[Weather Will]

WB June Can. Long range for the winter.  Hopefully just cold enough...

[Weather Will]

Where is Ji?  He usually opens an early winter prognostication thread by March.    it is time!!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

 

Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Where is Ji?  He usually opens an early winter prognostication thread by March.    it is time!!!

I've been thinking about starting a thread but I just don't have high enough hopes for the Winter right now

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Boy would I love a -EPO in Super El Nino. That's probably the best combo. CPC is disregarding the CANSIPS completely in their seasonal outlook, and 1 year ago around this time CANSIPS had a large part of the Midwest/Great Lakes -4 to -6 for the month of July at 0.0 month lead and it ended up positive departure across the board. It did do well in lead the last 2 Winter's though, although severely underestimating the warmth in the Mountain West, which I don't think anything got actually.  

Any cases of an emerging El Nino with a hot summer, then a cold and wet winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Any cases of an emerging El Nino with a hot summer, then a cold and wet winter?

I know 2002 was dry. I don't think there are actually many cases of hot Summer's in El Nino. Something global is shifting around now, jet stream is lifting north. 

Edit: 2002 was above average

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Summer's of our most recent 2 Strong/Super El Nino's

2015 was strong +PDO

We are nothing like 1997 anymore