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Winter 2026-2027 Seasonal Outlook


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Interesting state by state interactive snowfall prediction map.  I’ll take the one for NC and cash out now.  Still a bit leery of Super Ninos and lack of cold source but only takes 1 to make that map verify. 
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-snowfall-explorer-september-forecast-update-state-region-breakdown-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

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17 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Interesting state by state interactive snowfall prediction map.  I’ll take the one for NC and cash out now.  Still a bit leery of Super Ninos and lack of cold source but only takes 1 to make that map verify. 
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-snowfall-explorer-september-forecast-update-state-region-breakdown-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

How did these pre-winter models do last winter? 

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3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

FYI...for some reason your images do not download or show up on my desktop or phone.  It may be something in my settings but wanted to give you a heads up in case it is on your end.  

Hmmm, that is interesting. I‘M using a pic hosting site that seems to work otherwise.

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  • 2 weeks later...
16 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Lol I ended up +7.8" above avg

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I don’t follow their forecast for the mid Atlantic and Northeast. Those areas typically have at least one monster snowstorm in a super El Niño that puts them above average even if most of the winter is above normal temps and below normal snowfall.  As for us, I could see where we have enough cold for one good storm which gets us to average or above average.  

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The latest October data from six seasonal models now broadly agree on the overall Winter 2026/2027 snowfall pattern. A Super El Niño footprint is clear, with more snow across much of the southern and central United States and less snow for the northern U.S., southern Canada, and most of Europe.

ecmwf-change-in-the-winter-2026-2027-sno

Winter 2026/2027 Snowfall Forecast: How October Data Changed Your Region's Outlook » Severe Weather Europe

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 The CFSv2 for the last 2 months worth of daily 10 day mean runs has been persistent in showing Feb ‘27 to have an extreme couplet of a much warmer than normal E Canada and a cold dominant CONUS. No other mid-Oct. 10 day CFSv2 mean (back to 2012, its first one) has shown anything anywhere close to this, which has not only 80% of Conus BN but also a very mild E Canada acting as a very strong block:

IMG_3026.png.dda9d1c67627a606aa8ca6dc4ef7d538.png
 

 In this post in the main forum, I compared this mid-Oct CFSv2 forecast to all other CFSv2 mid-Oct forecasts for Feb (back to first one for Feb ‘12) and its implications regarding what may actually happen in Feb ‘27:


Aside: @buckeyefan1would you mind pinning this winter outlook thread? It is getting relatively little viewing and thus few posts (only 50 in 6 months) due to being so far down on the topics list even after a recent post since 5 other threads have already been pinned.

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