Winter 2026-2027 Seasonal Outlook

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Yeah, I did it already! 
 

[wncsnow]

Super El Nino coming

[Upstate Tiger]

So we have officially entered El Niño phase.  Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño.  
 

The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878.  It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877.  
 

The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US.  Farmers actually planted in February.  
 

This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.  

[GaWx]

On 6/11/2026 at 9:43 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

So we have officially entered El Niño phase.  Most agree it will be strong and possibly super El Niño.  
 

The strongest El Niño on record was the super El Niño of 1877/1878.  It actually started in late 1876 and was fully established in spring 1877.  
 

The winter of 1877/1878 was known as the year without winter, especially in the Midwest and eastern US.  Farmers actually planted in February.  
 

This El Niño is starting a little later and no two are the same but at this point, an above average temp winter would be a good bet.  

 In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC.

 In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE.

SE example for DJF 

Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8

Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F.

Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

 

[Upstate Tiger]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC.

 In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE.

SE example for DJF 

Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8

Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F.

Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

 

Hopefully not another 97/98 that was warm and had lots of severe weather including tornados. 
 

it only takes one cold air intrusion timed right to get a good winter storm. 
 

I would be surprised to see lots of below normal temps.  

[BooneWX]

So much is loaded into the net result of everyday winter weather but it’s going to be intriguing to see play out. We’ve had a lot of cold and dry the past few years with a southern jet that just can’t get the job done and watching everything get suppressed. I think we swing the pendulum the other way this year but hopefully not too much. My fear is that it’s indeed BN for much of the season with AN precip but I think it’s driven by a lot of 45° rainstorms - not snow. But we only need to connect on one for it to be a good winter in this forum.

[GaWx]

On 6/19/2026 at 2:12 PM, BooneWX said:

So much is loaded into the net result of everyday winter weather but it’s going to be intriguing to see play out. We’ve had a lot of cold and dry the past few years with a southern jet that just can’t get the job done and watching everything get suppressed. I think we swing the pendulum the other way this year but hopefully not too much. My fear is that it’s indeed BN for much of the season with AN precip but I think it’s driven by a lot of 45° rainstorms - not snow. But we only need to connect on one for it to be a good winter in this forum.

A lot of 45 degree rains would themselves be great news to relieve the drought. A lot of rains at any temp! Relieving the drought would make it a good winter whether or not any there are any widespread SE winter storms. If one happens to be a winter storm, which wouldn’t be hard to occur, that would be icing on the cake.

[Upstate Tiger]

I would be thrilled to see us have a wet winter regardless of precipitation type.  But odds for sustained cold or multiple winter storms seem stacked against us.  It only takes one like in 1983. The problem is our cold source region tends be depleted of arctic air during a strong nino.  
 

[Upstate Tiger]

Not familiar with the author but interesting reading on a hot summer day regarding increased potential for positive PNA this winter and some of the data and science behind this potential pattern.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Not familiar with the author but interesting reading on a hot summer day regarding increased potential for positive PNA this winter and some of the data and science behind this potential pattern.

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

I just posted this elsewhere:

1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN. 

In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:

The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.

This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.

Data from here:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp

—————

2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:
-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN

-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE

-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb

-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb

-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.

-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.

-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb

-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN
—————

In summary, 
-a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.
-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.
-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record
-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases
-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.
-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!

[Upstate Tiger]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I just posted this elsewhere:

1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN. 

In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:

The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.

This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.

Data from here:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp

—————

2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:
-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN

-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE

-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb

-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb

-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.

-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.

-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb

-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN
—————

In summary, 
-a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.
-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.
-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record
-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases
-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.
-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!

Good stuff!  Thanks for researching.  I was a senior in HS in 82/83. December was mild as I recall after a cool November.   We had a small event of about 3” in early January from a Miller A.  Another 3” event later in the month. Then we had the record breaker in March. So it was snowy winter in the upstate.   
 

The 1877/1878 is interesting. It is known as the Year Without Winter in the US.  But your temp records seem to indicate a lot of BN in SE.  This would align climatically with a Nino in the SE.  I’m excited to see what is in store this winter!  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

From Glenn Burns. 

I know it is the middle of summer, however there are some clear signals already being seen about our upcoming winter.  Early signs are emerging for more Polar Vortex disruptions. New long-range data shows a notable January weakening signal in the stratosphere.   We have a Super El Nino changing global wind and weather patterns.  Another MAJOR contributor is the melting arctic sea ice. The arctic is warming 4 times faster than the rest of the planet!  Just look at the difference in sea ice from just 10 years ago.  A 40% loss!  With more exposed ocean we have more heat being absorbed.  That heat is a major contributor to disruptions and weakening of the polar vortex, sending frigid arctic air south. With a Super El Nino providing a lot of moisture in the southeast, things could get very interesting this winter, especially late winter. 
A weaker or disrupted Polar Vortex does not guarantee cold and snow for everyone. But it does increase the chance that Arctic air can break out of the polar regions and reach us.

Looking at the past three "Super" El Niño events—1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016—the overarching theme for North Georgia was abundant moisture and a supercharged southern storm track. Because a strong El Niño parks the subtropical jet stream directly over the Southeast, a steady conveyor belt of Gulf moisture is virtually guaranteed.
However, the temperature profiles and wintry outcomes varied drastically based on whether cold Arctic air was available to interact with that moisture.
Here is how those three distinct winters played out across North Georgia:
1982–1983: The Frozen and Wet Super El Niño
This event brought the classic combination of heavy precipitation and enough cold air to deliver significant winter weather.
 The Setup: The active southern storm track consistently collided with suppressed, cold air masses.
 The Weather: It was a chilly, highly active winter. Instead of just plain rain, North Georgia saw multiple wintry mix setups.
 Notable Outcomes: Atlanta recorded an impressive 10.3 inches of snow over the course of the 1982–1983 season. The active jet stream also spawned a severe coastal-tracking storm system in February 1983 that dumped massive snow further up the East Coast after clearing the Southeast.
1997–1998: The Warm, Soggier "Godzilla" El Niño
The 1997–1998 event was one of the strongest ocean-warming anomalies on record, but a distinct lack of Arctic air kept North Georgia mostly out of the snow zones.
 The Setup: While the subtropical jet stream was incredibly intense and brought storm after storm, the polar jet stayed far to the north, locking the true winter cold up in Canada.
 The Weather: It was a cloudy, exceptionally wet, and generally mild winter. December saw near-normal temperatures, but January and February turned remarkably warm.
 Notable Outcomes: Instead of snow, this winter was defined by endless rain, mud, low solar days, and localized flooding. Wintry precipitation was remarkably rare across the region despite the endless moisture.
2015–2016: The Record-Breaking Warm and Flooded Winter
This most recent Super El Niño shared many traits with 1997–1998, pushing the warm and wet side of the spectrum to historic extremes, particularly early in the season.
 The Setup: A dominant high-pressure ridge and a strong polar vortex kept cold air bottled up north, while a moisture-rich southerly flow relentlessly pumped air from the Gulf of Mexico.
 The Weather: December 2015 shattered records as the warmest and wettest on record for almost all of Georgia. Atlanta averaged a staggering 12.3°F above normal for the month, with high temperatures frequently climbing into the 70s.
 Notable Outcomes: Atlanta recorded 12.51 inches of rain in December alone (more than 8.5 inches above normal), leading to widespread river flooding and soggy soils. January and February finally cooled down closer to long-term averages, but the winter as a whole remained overwhelmingly warm, wet, and liquid.

If you look at the baseline of a Super El Niño for North Georgia, you can safely bet on well above-average precipitation and active storm tracks. But as these three events show, the difference between a historic 10-inch snow season and a winter where people are wearing shorts on Christmas boils entirely to the wild card of the northern polar jet.  That is why these early signals along the melting arctic sea ice gives us a better handle on what we might expect