Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.

All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the seasonal are going it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.

[George001]

On 9/18/2026 at 11:47 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. 

Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events. 

[forkyfork]

On 9/20/2026 at 11:23 AM, forkyfork said:

yeah, i had a few below average days in winter 1998

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998