2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

A fetch that large, with duration that long would create long period energetic swells. Periods over 14 seconds are rare on the east coast (usually only associated with major hurricanes) They can cause major beach erosion in comparison to more typical mid period (10-13) second swells we typically see during east coast coastal storms.
So if this comes to fruition it could have major coastal impacts. Especially on the outer banks where several areas are already in trouble.


.

[GaWx]

18Z GFS is the most threatening GFS yet to the E coast by far with it only 200 miles ESE of Hatteras as its closest! Also, the 18Z Icon has come back W a bit from the 12Z, which itself was less threatening than its 0Z that was coming into the SE. 

 The 12Z JMA has it for its first time and hits the SE US pretty potently with a very beneficial 2”+ for much of the Carolinas and S VA!

 Edit: 18Z UKMET is even further away from the E coast than the 12Z! So, as of now, the UKMET is by a good margin the least threatening for a close pass of the E coast!

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks Larry.  While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south.

Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas!  

Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7.

In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

I am just a little surprised at the degree of blocking and amplitude given the very strong El Nino.  A strong STJ from the El Nino usually prevents patterns like this (moves things along) and we already saw the STJ quite apparent that impacted Isaias.  That was unusually strong STJ trough for the Gulf Coast for early Oct.

12z ECMWF looks like classic omega!  What is this, May?

I will say this. given the non0-linear nature of the atmosphere and its associated oscillations, something coming in being as the strongest on record (El Nino), unexpected things can and do happen that do not fit "what we thought should happen."  I mentioned this before, it was assumed before that in very strong El Nino, Cali gets soaked and the Pac NW is dry.  Well the 2015-16 event, the exact opppsite occurred!

[GaWx]

The 6Z UKMET brought it back way NW to within 300 miles of NC though not quite as close as the runs 0Z 10/14 through 6Z 10/15 that were only 200 miles SE of NC. That now means that for the first time that ALL of the latest runs of the major globals have it affecting parts of the E coast and it may very well end up a ST or hybrid.

@jconsor@vortex95

[GaWx]

The 0Z UK is nowhere near the E coast. But it has a very high end TS, which based on the 976 mb SLP might be too low:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.8N 71.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2026 36 32.8N 71.4W 1010 44
0000UTC 19.10.2026 48 32.0N 70.5W 1008 42
1200UTC 19.10.2026 60 32.4N 70.3W 1008 39
0000UTC 20.10.2026 72 34.2N 70.2W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.10.2026 84 34.7N 70.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 21.10.2026 96 34.7N 69.9W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.10.2026 108 34.5N 68.9W 1000 39
0000UTC 22.10.2026 120 35.3N 68.6W 997 42
1200UTC 22.10.2026 132 36.5N 67.0W 994 44
0000UTC 23.10.2026 144 38.5N 64.9W 986 56
1200UTC 23.10.2026 156 40.2N 60.6W 980 58
0000UTC 24.10.2026 168 43.3N 53.8W 976 56

[GaWx]

12Z UK: H in N ATL:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.7N  70.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 19.10.2026   36  32.7N  70.7W     1007            44
    1200UTC 19.10.2026   48  33.7N  71.3W     1004            43
    0000UTC 20.10.2026   60  35.0N  71.2W     1002            41
    1200UTC 20.10.2026   72  36.0N  70.5W     1001            39
    0000UTC 21.10.2026   84  36.0N  70.0W     1001            45
    1200UTC 21.10.2026   96  36.0N  70.2W      998            42
    0000UTC 22.10.2026  108  36.2N  70.5W      996           45
    1200UTC 22.10.2026  120  36.9N  69.2W      992            42
    0000UTC 23.10.2026  132  38.1N  66.5W      987            48
    1200UTC 23.10.2026  144  40.9N  61.1W      978            67
    0000UTC 24.10.2026  156  45.8N  56.8W      977            55
    1200UTC 24.10.2026  168  47.9N  58.0W      996            43