2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No red herrings involved. My first post showing the warmth this month was based on the warmest 1991-2020 averages. So that is why I kept it for continuity between posts.

But your cooler base period doesn’t show any material difference from the main point how much warmer this summer has been than past developing El Niños due to the record ridging from north of Hawaii across the CONUS.

So it just seems like you are inventing ways to be argumentative without addressing the main point. 

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

[bluewave]

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First July 31st  ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

 

 

The oceans are on fire globally

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The oceans are on fire globally

They are overall although not the BN Arctic interestingly enough.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I never said this summer wasn’t hot and never said 1987 was as hot. But 1987 was still hot and not normal for Nino. That’s why I pointed it out as another hot summer exception for Nino. That’s all.

Edit: I agree with your original idea that 2026 hot summer to date is atypical of pre-super-Nino. Then I brought up ‘91 being hot because it was the other exception to pre-super Nino hot summers. Then you correctly said that ‘91 was still just weak during summer. Then I brought up 1987 because it was mod to strong Nino in summer and hot.

The summer of 1987 was only the 6th warmest summer of the 1980s ranking only around the 60th warmest summer average temperature overall for the CONUS since 1895.

The warmest summer from that era was 1988 which was the 12th warmest average temperature for the CONUS.

While the summer of 1987  was warmer than the 1982 developing super El Nino, the 500mb and temperature pattern from the Pacific to the Atlantic was a general match for El Nino.

Even though there was an area of warmer departures relative to the other regions in portions of the East, other areas from the Pacific to Atlantic did match El Nino expectations. Since you can have a good general match without 100% conformity to the El Nino composite.