2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess so, since it's North Atlantic....I'll probably add it to the polar section in the full outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reading quickly, cold AMO favors stronger PV, warm weaker. I have to brush up on that.

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless. 
 

And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong. 

I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ!

This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I was going to say, be careful predicting a <-60dm N. Pacific trough for the DJFM mean. The Pacific has done nothing like that for a while, July will be the 6th consecutive month with -PNA. 

Obviously, I understand that if you reach through....but I'm not sure how to avoid that with an analog composite. Not to mention this isn't a winter forecast composite....it's a preliminary polar domain composite in July.

Anyway, I did address this within the narrative.

The correction to watch for in verification is higher heights over the southeast and an expansion of the Canadian ridge to the southeast, as lower heights in the vicinity of the southeastern CONUS has been a bias during this modern era. This also applies to the preliminary polar analog composite.