2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.

[raindancewx]

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March.

My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.