2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

EPS has this really getting going in the extended:

 

Finally! Let's see if it holds for more than a couple of days. 

[LakePaste25]

Here’s the SH the pac jet extension and +U

 

 

[raindancewx]

Which is more likely? ONI at 3.5, or 3.5 pages without mention of snow in the Northeast. I know what I'd bet on.

July 2015 was actually very much dead on the long-term temp correlation for Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, 4, etc. This year has been less so month to date.

The pattern right now for July looks a lot like the 2023-24 winter - very warm NE 1/4 of the US, a bit cool or near average West & South. But July 2023 itself was cold North Central.

The Modoki El Ninos that are cold in the East in winter tend to be cold in July in the East: 2004, 2009, 2014 were all cold in the East or Northeast for both.

Best indication that everything is "clicking" correctly for US El Nino impacts is the long-term precipitation tendency. We're not there yet. Amarillo-Boise zone is not behaving yet. Northeast and Florida should be much better too. 

 

The map (even accounting for Tropical Tidbits adjusting for global SSTs by global mean above average) for oceans looks very different to July 2023.

[raindancewx]

You can see on the maps four major differences to now if it isn't clear:

1) In 2023, you had hot water east of Mexico, cold water west of Mexico. That implied high pressure off the West Coast, and low pressure of the east coast. Absolute worst possible case for monsoon development. Followed the hottest June on record in Mexico, and coincided with the hottest July (and month) ever locally. in 2026, the warm water west of Mexico implies low pressure and the colder Gulf implies high pressure - nearly ideal pattern for moisture. Monsoon has been quite strong in Mexico since May and should pick up locally here too in the next week.

2) NE/SE Atlantic are night and day different - much colder now than 2023.

3) Coldest waters are relatively in the Atlantic now. Not the Pacific.

4) The SE Pacific (SW of South America) is much warmer, consistent maybe with steady weakening of the -PDO, just as the -PDO seems to be weakening somewhat in the NE Pacific. Still present though for both spots.

[so_whats_happening]

Im not going to play catch up since I have last been on here but here is TAO from May through July 4th, I'll be taking out May next update around mid month.

 

[so_whats_happening]

The difference in overall depth of the warm anomalies looks to be an artifact of the -PDO still being around. During the 2023-24 Nino this was centered around 130-140W. We also are lacking a significant negative anomaly region developing near the Dateline. I gotta ask the question though are we seeing Nino take on a new form with SSTs the way they are globally?

[GaWx]

 The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:

[GaWx]

Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd:

 June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/