2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 3:

[GaWx]

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

 

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki