2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history. 

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

[snowman19]

Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line.

All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.”

^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event

“A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

My calculation has -1.18 for the PDO, so in line with WCS. It's definitely been dropping the last few weeks. But the AMO is looking solidly negative now, so that is new compared to recent history. 

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO? 

[BlizzardWx]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

Yeah, that is what my page shows as of the 27th for the daily value. As for how I did it, that's an important point to dwell on for any PDO calculation. It's dependent on the period of record, the exact domain, how much you correct the climate change signal, etc. All of these effect the EOF calculation that defines the weights that can then be used in the actual calculation. None of this is clearly standardized anywhere, which is why different groups get different values. I think that mine and WCS are better than NOAA who does not appear to have detrended the climate change signal properly. 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, roardog said:

These guys are talking about atmospheric responses like WWB,MJO,SOI, etc. I don’t think anyone here disagrees with any of this. Posters like Bluewave and Chuck are talking about the pattern over the North Pacific and or North America not being completely Nino like. I’m still not even sure why we should even be expecting a strong Nino response right now since the RONI is at like +.5

Yeah, we can see the overlapping influences between the El Niño, MJO, and -PDO heading into early June.

The ridging showing up south of Alaska into Western Canada is the correlation with the El Nino and +AAM.

The extension of the ridge further east across much of the CONUS is more -PDO and MJO 8-1 related for this time of year.

So effectively a 500 mb composite in early June that reflects these influences. A coupled El Niño will vary in its sensible weather related to the other influences. 

Also the pattern in recent years of the 500 mb ridges becoming stronger and more expansive with weaker troughs during any given ENSO state.