2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

 

 Pretty solid -SOIs all due to very low Tahiti SLP as Darwin is also a bit BN:

16 May 2026	1008.21	1009.70	-23.11	-7.40	-0.93
15 May 2026	1009.15	1010.00	-18.21	-6.36	-0.50
14 May 2026	1009.81	1010.30	-15.45	-5.70	-0.07
13 May 2026	1010.40	1010.50	-12.47

[snowman19]

And this will spawn another DWKW

[snowman19]

“This signature actually looks quite similar to 1997, just delayed by a couple weeks. 1997 had a similar "break" in the westerly anomalies for a couple weeks due to MJO forcing, followed by a big WWB in mid May. This year seems to be following suit just ~2 weeks later (similar to how it's been evolving overall).”

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. 

The developing El Niño isn’t the only thing going on now. The early month pattern with the more +PNA was closer to what we typically see with the May correlation. But this coming heatwave is more related to the MJO 4-6 convection pumping the Southeast ridge. The +30C wam pool extends all the way back to the IO. 

[snowman19]

To add to the previous post, so far, this current subsurface evolution looks closest to 1997