2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I like focusing on where the +30C warm pools are. Since the actual forcing driving our sensible weather follows those areas. The current forecast is for split forcing centers near the Dateline and off of Mexico in late May.That Dateline forcing is closer to near record Nino 4 and MJO 7 and the forcing further east is with the record +PMM.

Confidence growing in another massive WWB and DWKW. Also, good point about the extreme +PMM causing a secondary area of forcing

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO vs PNA VP

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. 

Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

New JMA for regions 3 and 3.4 FWIW:
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

mario ramirez super nino

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

mario ramirez super nino

Your point? All he did was post the model run

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your point? All he did was post the model run

just messing. i agree that we're probably getting a super Nino this year