2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lol, what's up with these June contract temperatures? 

It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016? 

Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28?  5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless. 

Fair. I guess the concern is that there’s basically no floor with super strong el ninos. Can be a total shutout almost even for people at very high latitudes and elevations. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO has been correlating with an East Coast trough more 23-24, 24-25, 25-26 vs 18-19 to 22-23. NAO is a little more important this coming Winter, I think. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

As the Kelvin Wave has continued to progress east, TAO/Triton has +4-5c anomalies now under Nino 1+2. Should be interesting to see if it surfaces in the east, along the American coast in the next few weeks. Still to be determined whether it's an east-based, west-based, or basin-wide event- I'm going toward basin-wide. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Fair. I guess the concern is that there’s basically no floor with super strong el ninos. Can be a total shutout almost even for people at very high latitudes and elevations. 

Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. 

Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.