2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

After huge busts the last 2 winters, this one could've been in the bag. Milder than avg winter, easy call with a strong nino. But thats not enough. Every seasonal forecast is now way too cool . Take the Euro for instance. It was way too warm in the east last winter. BUT in 2023-24 it wasnt warm enough, so just use that. In fact, let's just round up to +20° for everyone and no snow anywhere. 

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25:

 

Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25:

 

Tally:

-did well in 19 and esp. 17

-did pretty well 21

-did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18

-did terribly 25, 24

-too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE

-NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2

-SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

Good work! Here's the noaa comparison.

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?

Some people just love forecasting based off enso and ignore the other factors.