2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

No, Cpc uses roni instead of oni because climate change was interfering with the enso signal they made a purposeful effort to remove cc. In fact climate change probably weakened this el nino by keeping the wpac warmer then it normally would be during this strong of a nino  that likely prevented as strong ( even if its still be very strong and in many ways record breaking) of a eastward shift in deep convection which has thus meant that while the trade winds have been extremely weak or reversed they are running only slightly ahead of 1997 despite nino 3.4 itself running much higher. Now did climate change raise nino 3.4 sst sure, but because the tropics have warmed the sst threshold for deep convection ( and thus heat distribution thru latent heating) has gone up meaning cc does not mean more heat is being disturbed in the main way enso actually impacts our weather. 

I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I cannot overemphasize how important what I bolded above is. This idea is well explained at the link below, which I recently posted:

 

Significant Increase in Sea Surface Temperature at the Genesis of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

Using satellite observations and a high-resolution global climate model, we show that this threshold has undergone a significant warming trend during the past several decades and will continue to increase in the future. This warming trend is closely related to the changes in the tropical mean SST. A constant relationship between the SST threshold and upper-tropospheric temperature is found in both the current climate and a warming climate, which corroborates the argument that tropospheric temperatures in the tropics approximately follow a moist adiabatic adjustment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101950

The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade.

Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".

[Prismshine Productions]

Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question [mention=63]forkyfork[/mention], what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter....
I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont:

'23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby)
'24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg
'25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg

Two above average seasons
Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years.

Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this.

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