2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[raindancewx]

Maybe I'm wrong - we could end with the wettest month since 1892 here. The land has already rapidly greened up from all the rain. Very pretty. I have mosquito bites all over my back just above my butt from walking, as well as on my arms. Not great.

Conceptually, the winter now has the following setup: Very hot Jun-July (poor for snow), hot for Aug (neutral), wet (good for snow), El Nino (good for snow), duration (>3 yrs since last big season), El Nino + good monsoon (good for snow). September will finish near average for highs with all the rain induced cold days.

Polo is supposed to die right over El Paso, which is amazing spot for a low for most of New Mexico.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview:

A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the most scintillating chapters in meteorological lore-

 

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html