2026-2027 El Nino

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm not arguing that there isn't any support for it.....I'm just skeptical at this early juncture given the intensity of the event just three years ago.

Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month. 

 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however. 

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however. 

A super Nino really needs all ingredients to come together to achieve it. I suppose it might be a little easier these days with the abundance of warm water everywhere but it’s still not easy. I would think we would need WWB to continue after this strong one to get us to super later this year. If trades come back later this spring, I don’t think we get to super.