2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This basin-wide warming across the North Pacific overwhelming the PDO is something new. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z

Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common.

 

 

 

Yea, this past season already seemed to have behaved more like a +PDO, if anything, despite the continued negative readings.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump-started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? He loves to be bombastic as this is just one example. His being repeatedly bombastic doesn’t make it the near certainty he wants us to think it is. Snowman, Don, and myself commented about this being a big bust in the 25-26 thread:

 

 

I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure we aren't getting a super El Nino.

Thanks, Ray. We all know that there’s lots of uncertainty this far out. It’s his bombastic style of Tweeting as if there’s little uncertainty about a super Nino that I’m noting just as he did in the first half of Jan for a supposed near record strong WWB that never occurred. @snowman19was the first to point his bust out. By the way Eric never acknowledged his big bust on Twitter.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump-started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? He loves to be bombastic as this is just one example. His being repeatedly bombastic doesn’t make it the near certainty he wants us to think it is. Snowman, Don, and myself commented about this being a big bust in the 25-26 thread:

 

 

In Eric’s defense, it’s not just him, it’s several other people, including some other big name mets. The point he’s making is that record breaking El Niño events tend to tip their hand very early in the season. The super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 all tipped their hand in March/April. It’s his opinion that this one is doing the same thing. Could he be mistaken? Of course. By late June/early July, we should know for sure which way this event is headed

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chuck, thanks so much. Two questions....I have to assume it's tougher to get the -WPO loading SST pattern ("C") during an El Niño?

Secondly, do you have a similar schematic for an EPO correlation?

TIA.

 

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The Atlantic is very interesting now too….have we finally, at long last flipped to a -AMO cycle? The last time we were in a -AMO cycle was the tail end of the 1970’s through 1995…..  @Stormchaserchuck1

In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic SSTs were the warmest they have ever been.. I don't think we are in -AMO cycle, it's too soon off of that. In 2026 Atlantic hurricane season thread, I smoothed out long term AMO, and found it's still in ascending phase, although data is missing since 2023. Last year and this year in the overall trend look like just a small wave down. 

[GaWx]

 This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client.

 “What kind of summer are we walking into?

For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.

Ocean signals point to warmth
A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.

Enter El Niño—but with nuance
Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.

So, what does this mean for 2026?
The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^El Nino by itself is usually cooler in the Summer in the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northeast

Before a later in the year peak is stronger

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance. 

Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and the strong El Nino that was accompanied by -PDO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes that succession of +WPO seasons that we had even more impressive considering we have also had a consistent cool ENSO baseline. No wonder we had such an awful stretch of eastern US winters given that we were ripping off +WPO La Nina events and -PDO El Nino.

Yeah, definitely, they have a slight +PDO correlation too in the preceding late Spring/Summer

The "other things driving" must have been really strong 2016-2024 because it bucked the warm ENSO/PDO correlation in that time. 

Those correlation SSTA's are really strong though in those preceding maps, then another pattern emerges in the Fall. I might have to break it down and do a manual index, implementing it for a Winter forecast this year. 

I'm glad you appreciate the value of the method. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Faux -PDO's due to relative +PDO anomalies this

RONI that

Overall Telecon instability --> chaos/reduction in longer term predictive skill, coherent and undeniable

It's a bit of a philosophical reasoning but there appears to be a realism emerging where traditional indexes are becoming gradually less usable. Ultimately perhaps meaningless as the climate air, land, sea, or combinatory thereof, proves to be steeply in delta - and it appears to be closely correlated.  The greater the d(C) in time, the > the index-correlation collapse... manifested as variability that cannot be predetermined based upon known sciences. Definitely not modeling...jesus.

From all that, it's getting harder, even for the harder headed types, to ignore. Stop wasting our time using them to predict seasonal modes of behavior.  For none of that former starkly realistic plight lends to success being more than a blind squirrel upon a nut.  We can kick and scream and get mad at the messenger here, or ... we can demonstrate a matured higher reasoning capacity that seeks truth, while being disconnected from ego.  

There may be more use in the permuted versions... like RONI and so forth. However, the boundaries of even those are changing.  That makes them suss unfortunately. 

Personally I'm seeing ... perhaps "sensing" is a better word, more success in just using large hemispheric 6-monthly trends, and then getting a sense of their likeliness to continuing, or decay, based upon those total/orbital observations.  It's been cold despite warm this or cold that (vice versa anomalistic result): any reason that should stop?  Nope. Continue. Yup, new paradigm, break out the dice.

Ha, as a wild digression ... this sort of reminds me of that new Quantum Field idea about aspects of deeper sentience at that fundamental layer where precedes the present mindful awareness, are not being constrained by time; when we have "gut feelings", those are the future transmitting backward.  It's not a bad idea when matching that with anecdotal.  Like someone falls off a ladder and bonks their head.  As they come around they have a memory of actually finishing their descent down the latter, without it being assisted by 9.8 m/s2.  There's a version of the future transmitting back, but it gets interceded along the way... 

I get this gut feelings that the indexes as originally conceived out of a statistic framework, won't work in the future generations -  probably, this is beginning now, too.  They'll be extinct eventually. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Faux -PDO's due to relative +PDO anomalies this

RONI that

Overall Telecon instability --> chaos/reduction in longer term predictive skill, coherent and undeniable

It's a bit of a philosophical reasoning but there appears to be a realism emerging where traditional indexes are becoming gradually less usable. Ultimately perhaps meaningless as the climate air, land, sea, or combinatory thereof, proves to be steeply in delta - and it appears to be closely correlated.  The greater the d(C) in time, the > the index collapse... manifested as variability that cannot be predetermined based upon known sciences. Definitely not modeling...jesus.

From all that, it's getting harder, even for the harder headed types, to ignore. Stop wasting our time using them to predict seasonal modes of behavior.  For none of that former starkly realistic plight lends to success being more than a blind squirrel upon a nut.  We can kick and scream and get mad at the messenger here, or ... we can demonstrate a matured higher reasoning capacity that seeks truth, while being disconnected from ego.  

There's perhaps more use in the permuted versions... like RONI and so forth but the boundaries in that are intrinsically blurred.  They have to be changing too.  That makes them suss unfortunately. 

Personally I'm seeing ... perhaps "sensing" is a better word, more success in just using large hemispheric 6-monthly trends, and then getting a sense of their likeliness to continuing, or decay, based upon those total/orbital observations.  Ha, as a wild digression ... this sort of reminds me of that new Quantum Field idea about aspects of sentience not being constrained by time; when we have "gut feelings", those are the future transmitting backward.  It's not a bad idea when matching that with anecdotal.  Like someone falls off a ladder and bonks their head.  As they come around they have a memory of actually finishing their descent down the latter, without it being assisted by 9.8 m/s2.  There's a version of the future transmitting back, but it gets interceded along the way... 

I get this gut feelings that the indexes are originally every conceived, won't work in the future generations -  probably beginning now, too.  They'll be extinct eventually. 

Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. 

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West this cold season. 

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm of cold". 

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season. 

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....

Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.