2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not arguing for a big winter next year...all I am trying to say is that nothing is set in stone yet. This is why I usually don't get into it this early. You end up defending a hypothetical position that you haven't even taken yet.

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) 

Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based.

The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just saw that two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We just flipped from this:

To this: 

And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back??

Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just flipped from this:

To this: 

And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back??

Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

AGAIN....don't mistake this for me saying it has to be cold in the east next year...not what I am implying.

[snowman19]

Agreed, but I doubt we have a -PDO next season, and I'm also not sure it's east-based.
The Pacific is changing....I don't think you are going to pull off an appreciable warm ENSO and maintain -PDO. We just pulled it off two years ago and it isn't happening again...never has.

This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific:

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+QBO/east-based El Nino and -PDO is a very warm Winter composite.. it's early and those things can change (Nino could be more west-based, look at how Nino 4 is currently warming.. and PDO may rise through the year? - I don't know, Feb was <-1.00) 

Is a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We just flipped from this:

To this: 

And now a healthy WARM ENSO is going to revert it back??

Shoot me for not buying in instantaneously and having pause-

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This event may finally cause the stagnant, record breaking warm pool in the WPAC to move. This may be the one to finally flip the Pacific:

 

 

 

 

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, roardog said:

Does a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

Does a +PDO combined those other parameters really that much colder?

 

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario. 

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer. 

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. 

Check out the early season lead though...

Pretty strong May-July

You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. 

Check out the early season lead though...

Pretty strong May-July

You make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 and Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator. 

WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise. 

Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO)

Sept-Nov 2025

Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO)

Clear pattern

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Warm and muggy today, mid 70s in March. It's hard to remember it's still just March as we've had so many of these days this month. The NAO is very positive, but there has been a less than ideal 500mb pattern for very warm days this month in the W. Pacific (+EPO/+WPO usually drives major March warm ups - the WPO hasn't been positive this month). 

[michsnowfreak]

Going to be interesting to see how the cansips evolves this summer. It had the cold winter lakes/east look last summer and fall while the other seasonals were mild. Its showing another cold winter in those same areas for 2026-27.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Going to be interesting to see how the cansips evolves this summer. It had the cold winter lakes/east look last summer and fall while the other seasonals were mild. Its showing another cold winter in those same areas for 2026-27.

My early hunch is it's right, but like I said....we shall see. So, so early...