GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago IMO the HRRR is best for severe storms . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My point and click went from 1 or 2 inches to an inch or less. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Mine went to less than an inch. Why would you issue a winter storm warning for an inch or less. It must be computer junking up their point forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Here’s my Accuweather forecast. (Yeah I know lol) but it’s nice to see my % isn’t that far apart. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Mine went to less than an inch. Maybe they just hadn’t updated it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said: My point and click went from 1 or 2 inches to an inch or less. . Point and click are basically the NBM fed into a forecast graphic computer system. These are the model runs that went into the 18z NBM for snowfall at hour 42. So it's made from mostly ensemble members, short range models, and hasn't incorporated any data from the 12z/06z Euro at all that I can see. Model Date Cycle Projection Valid Date ECMWFE P1 20260129 0 60 2026013112 GEFS P27 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P26 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P25 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P24 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P23 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P22 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P21 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P20 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P2 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P28 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P19 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P17 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P16 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P15 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P14 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P13 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P12 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P11 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P10 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P1 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P18 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P29 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P3 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P30 20260129 6 54 2026013112 SREF ARW P6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 RAPX 20260129 15 45 2026013112 NAMH 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HRRRX 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HIRESW FV3 20260129 12 48 2026013112 GFS 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P9 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P8 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P7 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P6 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P5 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P4 20260129 6 54 2026013112 ECMWFE P9 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF ARW 20260129 12 48 2026013112 ECMWFE P8 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P6 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P28 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P27 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P26 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P25 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P24 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P23 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P22 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P21 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P20 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P29 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P2 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P18 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P17 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P16 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P15 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P14 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P13 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P12 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P11 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P10 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P19 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P3 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P30 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P31 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P50 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P5 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P49 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P48 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P47 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P46 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P45 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P44 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P43 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P42 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P41 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P40 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P4 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P39 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P38 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P37 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P36 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P35 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P34 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P33 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P32 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P7 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF MEM2 20260129 12 48 2026013112 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago You can check here and see what was used for what forecast for the NBM at a particular hour. The models above were from me selecting 6hr snowfall at hour 42. https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Point and click are basically the NBM fed into a forecast graphic computer system. These are the model runs that went into the 18z NBM for snowfall at hour 42. So it's made from mostly ensemble members, short range models, and hasn't incorporated any data from the 12z/06z Euro at all that I can see. Model Date Cycle Projection Valid Date ECMWFE P1 20260129 0 60 2026013112 GEFS P27 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P26 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P25 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P24 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P23 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P22 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P21 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P20 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P2 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P28 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P19 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P17 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P16 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P15 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P14 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P13 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P12 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P11 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P10 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P1 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P18 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P29 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P3 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P30 20260129 6 54 2026013112 SREF ARW P6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW P1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N6 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N4 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N3 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N2 20260129 3 57 2026013112 SREF ARW N1 20260129 3 57 2026013112 RAPX 20260129 15 45 2026013112 NAMH 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HRRRX 20260129 12 48 2026013112 HIRESW FV3 20260129 12 48 2026013112 GFS 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P9 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P8 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P7 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P6 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P5 20260129 6 54 2026013112 GEFS P4 20260129 6 54 2026013112 ECMWFE P9 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF ARW 20260129 12 48 2026013112 ECMWFE P8 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P6 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P28 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P27 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P26 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P25 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P24 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P23 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P22 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P21 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P20 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P29 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P2 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P18 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P17 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P16 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P15 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P14 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P13 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P12 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P11 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P10 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P19 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P3 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P30 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P31 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P50 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P5 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P49 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P48 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P47 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P46 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P45 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P44 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P43 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P42 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P41 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P40 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P4 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P39 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P38 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P37 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P36 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P35 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P34 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P33 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P32 20260129 0 60 2026013112 ECMWFE P7 20260129 0 60 2026013112 WRF MEM2 20260129 12 48 2026013112 I didn’t realize that. Interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago How bizarre is it to look at a warning, Advisory, etc… map of East Tennessee and see Knox County lumped in there with the mountain counties? Does anyone ever remember this happening before?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If I had to make a call for east of 75, would say 3-6" more for upper ridges and mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said: How bizarre is it to look at a warning, Advisory, etc… map of East Tennessee and see Knox County lumped in there with the mountain counties? Does anyone ever remember this happening before? . It happened a few years ago with a miller A system that went just enough south that my area got around 2-3 inches but just east and south of here was 4-6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago The ICON was a tick better. 2.8 inches at 12z is 3 inches at 18z in Knoxville for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z. Hate RGEM is trending drier each run. One trend red flag for me on the difference between snow and a solid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Johnson City is 93 percent for over 4 and about 80 percent for oved 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Hurricaneguy said: Hate RGEM is trending drier each run. One trend red flag for me on the difference between snow and an solid snow. It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hate RGEM is trending drier each run. One trend red flag for me on the difference between snow and a solid snow. .02 isn’t much. I’d think something was up if it didn’t go up or down a little. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z. Is that ratioed?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 15 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: Hate RGEM is trending drier each run. One trend red flag for me on the difference between snow and a solid snow. Looks considerably beefier east 18z on readers right 12z on left 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 58 minutes ago Author Share Posted 58 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, GBOVolz said: Is that ratioed? . Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 57 minutes ago Author Share Posted 57 minutes ago Whatever model wvlt used showed 4 inches for my area, 5 for Knoxville, and 6-8 east of there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GBOVolz Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago From SPC meso….The snow burst in eastern NC andsoutheast VA depict 700-500mb lapse rates >6.5C/km Saturdayafternoon and evening where 2”/hr rates with thundersnow is likely. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 44 minutes ago Share Posted 44 minutes ago 12 minutes ago, John1122 said: Whatever model wvlt used showed 4 inches for my area, 5 for Knoxville, and 6-8 east of there. They have their in house from what I gather. WJHL does too. They said theirs was similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 42 minutes ago Author Share Posted 42 minutes ago I will also credit the WVLT met, as he said expect snow showers in the extreme cold that isn't showing up on models. This will be one of those situations where the dgz is probably around 2500 feet and up so snow will fall and it will seem to come from nothing on radar. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 39 minutes ago Author Share Posted 39 minutes ago The GFS is slightly down with totals. Basically today the low end models have went up, the high end have came down, and they are meeting in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago Lake michigan still has quite a bit of open water, maybe the upper low can pick up some moisture if it’s cold enough lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago Goofy is bent on 6" for much of Monroe Co 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago 42 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z. Looks like it's consolidated the Low to our East. Wrapping it up more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 43 minutes ago, John1122 said: Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent. Where did you get these graphics from? I can not find them anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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