February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Stormchaserchuck1]

384hr 0z GEFS

Problem is where the Polar Vortex is

MJO may offer some help by the 2nd week of March if it can stay amplified

[Stormchaserchuck1]

End of the 0z EPS is also giving us a +EPO-dominated pattern. +EPO is warmest of all the index patterns, runs the chance of having 7+ consecutive days with highs in the 50s or greater here locally. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

End of the 0z EPS is also giving us a +EPO-dominated pattern. +EPO is warmest of all the index patterns, runs the chance of having 7+ consecutive days with highs in the 50s or greater here locally. 

Average high temp for 3/2 (360 hrs on EPS) at BWI is 51.5 and 3/9 is 57.4. So 50's would be average.

Fyi, Eps has 1pm temps on 3/1 (354hrs) in mid 40's.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Average high temp for 3/2 (360 hrs on EPS) at BWI is 51.5 and 3/9 is 57.4. So 50's would be average.

Fyi, Eps has 1pm temps on 3/1 (354hrs) in mid 40's.

Weird.. the 354hr anomaly map is above average temps

[GreyHat]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice cold shot on 0z GFS. Dry, but one more dip into Winter

You state the GFS is not a good model, but yet you reference it. Why?

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Weird.. the 354hr anomaly map is above average temps

Barely per attached, but the 348hrs and 360hrs are both slightly below per Pivotal. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well +EPO is usually above. If the vortex over Alaska verifies, we will likely go warmer if not that day then the next few days. Here's the 6z GEFS

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well +EPO is usually above. If the vortex over Alaska verifies, we will likely go warmer if not that day then the next few days. Here's the 6z GEFS

You're using Gefs and I'm using Eps. But looking at the 0z Gefs, temps are very similar to Eps. But I just noticed your map above is 378hrs vs 354hrs I used. The Eps only go out 360hrs while Gefs go out to 384hrs. I started with the 354hrs map because you originally posted the first 7 days in March would be in the 50's.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a longwave pattern, so the 7+ days of highs in the 50s could happen + days. It probably gets warmer past the end of these ensemble runs honestly vs before. It's far ways out though, but you can nail index and general whole areas-of the hemisphere with the ensembles here. If they had neutral PNA/EPO and US ridging, you could say maybe not.. but the H5 is in a strong state on the ensemble mean so the 1st week of March is probably above average temps

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

384hr 0z GEFS

Problem is where the Polar Vortex is

MJO may offer some help by the 2nd week of March if it can stay amplified

Fwiw, the most recent Bias Corrected Gefs MJO from 2/15 is not as strong with the MJO wave and dumps it back into the COD before the end of February. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not the 0z AIFS showing another logbook fail on the 24th (and the 0z GFS too to a degree)

Problem from what I can see in the 00Z GFS around the 24th is that it has a low in southern Canada, which I would guess is kind of messing things up with the main system of interest that would affect us.  Maybe not quite the same as a Lakes low, but I'd have to think it isn't ideal.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a longwave pattern, so the 7+ days of highs in the 50s could happen + days. It probably gets warmer past the end of these ensemble runs honestly vs before. It's far ways out though, but you can nail index and general whole areas-of the hemisphere with the ensembles here. If they had neutral PNA/EPO and US ridging, you could say maybe not.. but the H5 is in a strong state on the ensemble mean so the 1st week of March is probably above average temps

It's not a cold pattern for sure, but the long range ensembles have been rushing warmth in the east for literally months. So a dominating Pac warm pattern is far from a lock imho. Of course, that doesn't mean it's conducive to snow either unfortunately.