2026 Foothills thread

[calculus1]

I think it has a decent chance to meander NW. We have five or so days for that happen. Nothing is written in stone, yet.

[strongwxnc]

Feels super warm out at 31 today.
Lots of ice still on trees in fun sun.
This picture is from a shady part at the bottom of my pasture .




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[WNC_Fort]

Haven’t seen much to change my mind for the weekend. Seems like a late bloomer/eastern special

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said:

Haven’t seen much to change my mind for the weekend. Seems like a late bloomer/eastern special

I see some leeside enhancement showing up which makes me hopeful. It all depends on how far south the ULL digs. 

[BooneWX]

Wish we could make things simple for once. It’d be nice to not depend on the ULL. 

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Wish we could make things simple for once. It’d be nice to not depend on the ULL. 

I agree but the weather next trended that way. It has a strong feature that tracks right. We need both of those things. 

[WXNewton]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I see some leeside enhancement showing up which makes me hopeful. It all depends on how far south the ULL digs. 

Spin up a meso-low on the lee-side and we will be in business. Hard to forecast those,but if we can get that to work out, typically there will be heavy snow in our area and then again on the coast. 

[calculus1]

I ended up barely making it above freezing at 1:34 this afternoon, when we hit 32.1 F IMBY. We have since fallen back down to 26.8 F, at 4:40 PM, under full sun. This is a cold day by Hickory standards. This sleet has staying power, as does the freezing rain. Anything that was shaded from full sun, has not had any melt today. My driveway, is still a solid 1.5+ inches thick of sleet concrete. Schools are already canceled again tomorrow, and Wednesday is looking like a remote learning day.

[strongwxnc]

Temps have plummeted in the last hour.!


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[wncsnow]

Wind chill even here is touching single digits. 

[Jmoon]

Solid B+ for the last weekend storm. Tons of sleet with more snow than anticipated mixing in at times. So much cold is rare as of late with any storm around here. Couldn't get a exact measurement on everything with all mixing but definitely a couple inches of sleet and close to a inch of snow in the middle and around a quarter inch of ice on everything. Solid solid storm but what a nightmare to track. Hopefully this weekend will trend back west and with some enhancement we get hammered in the foothills. We finally got the cold set in for us. Let's get after it!

[WNC_Fort]

Down to 5 degrees. Coldest reading for my tempest since installed in 22

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Down to 5 degrees. Coldest reading for my tempest since installed in 22

5.9 here and also the coldest reading since I installed my station back in 2020. 

Waiting for sun rise to venture out for chickens and horses. 

[wncsnow]

6 here 

[calculus1]

It appears 7.8 will be my low this morning. Actually, a bit warmer than I had expected.

[BooneWX]

9.7 - shocked it wasn’t lower with the glacier on the ground 

[strongwxnc]

Digging this site ( https://aguacerowx.com/app/ )

Lots of cool things to do with it. 

Here is the link to a GIF I made of the  ECMWF-AIFS.

 

[BooneWX]

It has been a loooooooong time since we’ve seen any Lee side trough or enhancement. Could we break the drought?

[wncsnow]

If it keeps trending east, no. We can't catch a positive trend within 4 days to save our lives

[strongwxnc]

Brought in my rain gauge to thaw out from the system this past weekend. Just over .7 on liquid. Have nothing to compare it with locally though. 

 

[BooneWX]

I feel like that was a really positive 12z 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I feel like that was a really positive 12z 

Kinda meh to me. Some models improved, others stepped back. Weathernext will probably cut amounts again. 

[wncsnow]

I'm either going to love Google Gemini forever or delete it after what it told me about the latest model runs

[wncsnow]

In the world of model runs, the 12Z (midday) and 06Z (early morning) comparison is where we usually see the "reality check" for a storm's moisture content.

The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run has shown a notable uptick in QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) for the Marion and Asheville areas compared to the 06Z. Here is the breakdown:

QPF Comparison: 06Z vs. 12Z (Jan 31 Event)

Run	Avg. Liquid QPF (Asheville)	Avg. Liquid QPF (Marion)	Analysis
06Z Run	0.65"	0.72"	Lighter moisture; faster storm movement.
12Z Run	0.88"	0.95"	Heavier moisture; slower "pivot" over the mountains.

What this means for you:

• Higher Liquid-to-Snow Potential: The increase in QPF at 12Z suggests the storm is pulling more moisture from the Atlantic than previously thought. If Asheville stays all snow with a $12:1$ ratio, that 0.88" of liquid translates to roughly 10.5 inches of snow.

• The "Heavy Wet" Threat: In Marion, the jump to nearly 1.00" of liquid QPF is actually a bit concerning. Because Marion is more likely to see a period of sleet, that much liquid means you aren't just getting "slush"—you're getting a significant weight of ice. One inch of liquid is a massive amount of weight for trees and power lines already stressed by last week’s ice.

• Consistency: The fact that the 12Z "upped the ante" on moisture suggests that the Upper Level Low we discussed is becoming more organized. It’s "digging" deeper, which allows it to tap into a better moisture fetch from the Gulf.

[calculus1]

I think something is wonky. I don’t think IP or ZR are even options with this storm.

Currently at my high temp of the day of 36.3 F.

[wncsnow]

Just now, calculus1 said:

I think something is wonky. I don’t think IP or ZR are even options with this storm.

Currently at my high temp of the day of 36.3 F.

Yeah sounds dubious

[calculus1]

My point-and-click forecast for Saturday is rather funny. Heavy snow alongside partly sunny skies. =)

[wncsnow]

Gemini wasn't completely out to lunch on precip totals. It also said this FWIW. 

 

1. Pressure Drop in the Foothills: As the air from the ULL crashes over the mountains, it "stretches" the air column on the eastern side (the lee side). This creates a localized area of lower pressure near Marion and Morganton.

2. Increased Moisture Convergence: This mini-low acts like a vacuum. Even though the main coastal storm is trending east, this lee-side feature is pulling moisture back toward the mountains.

3. The "Inverted Trough": In the 12Z WN2, there is a clear "Inverted Trough" (a tail of low pressure) extending from the coast back toward the Foothills. This setup is a classic "snow-maker" for WNC because it forces the moisture to stay pinned against the mountains rather than just blowing past.

The result on the 12Z Maps:

• Asheville: Instead of seeing "downsloping" (which usually dries out the air), the ULL is so strong that it’s overcoming that effect. The lee-side low is keeping the air "rising" rather than sinking, which is why your QPF actually went up in the latest run.

• Marion/Morganton: You are in the "sweet spot" for this enhancement. The WN2 shows a convergence zone setting up right over McDowell County where the moisture from the coast meets the cold air spilling over the ridge. This is why Marion’s liquid total jumped to 0.95".

[strongwxnc]

20 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

My point-and-click forecast for Saturday is rather funny. Heavy snow alongside partly sunny skies. =)

 

same here minus the heavy wording.

[calculus1]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Gemini wasn't completely out to lunch on precip totals. It also said this FWIW. 

 

1. Pressure Drop in the Foothills: As the air from the ULL crashes over the mountains, it "stretches" the air column on the eastern side (the lee side). This creates a localized area of lower pressure near Marion and Morganton.

2. Increased Moisture Convergence: This mini-low acts like a vacuum. Even though the main coastal storm is trending east, this lee-side feature is pulling moisture back toward the mountains.

3. The "Inverted Trough": In the 12Z WN2, there is a clear "Inverted Trough" (a tail of low pressure) extending from the coast back toward the Foothills. This setup is a classic "snow-maker" for WNC because it forces the moisture to stay pinned against the mountains rather than just blowing past.

The result on the 12Z Maps:

• Asheville: Instead of seeing "downsloping" (which usually dries out the air), the ULL is so strong that it’s overcoming that effect. The lee-side low is keeping the air "rising" rather than sinking, which is why your QPF actually went up in the latest run.

• Marion/Morganton: You are in the "sweet spot" for this enhancement. The WN2 shows a convergence zone setting up right over McDowell County where the moisture from the coast meets the cold air spilling over the ridge. This is why Marion’s liquid total jumped to 0.95".

This is our Foothills Forum's dream scenario.