January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Nice run for the forum all things considered w/ room to come north a bit....good run for NC as well.  What time is the AIFS rolling?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Seems like when these huge highs are shown, 1042-1046mb is about all they usually end up. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

FWIW AI GFS kicked out the Baja low at 12z and 18z. 

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Poor TX, parts of it would have freezing rain for decades on that GFS run 

Didn't kick, HP was so strong cut it off. 1040+ parked over TX

[Carvers Gap]

I "think" we are gonna want the precip(warm nose risk noted) to get out slightly in front of that high.  The 18z ICON looked ready to unload.  It was a bit flatter.  I think the GFS is in the ballpark now, but just too strong w/ the high.  But...it is within range of being almost trusted.  Remember though, with the current system today it was amped too much...so who knows.  It just amps everything like the old DGEX.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What time is the AIFS rolling?

Seems like it is usually finished when the GFS is, but I'm not sure what time it starts to percolate out. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

100% the GFS is doing some weird stuff w/ the Baja deal.  It has missed almost every time this winter.   Outlier for that reason alone.

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nice run for the forum all things considered w/ room to come north a bit....good run for NC as well.  What time is the AIFS rolling?

It rolls out at same time as the regular Euro. Usually right when GFS wraps up

[John1122]

The AI GFS is not our friend. Major warming issues. 

[TellicoWx]

If the Baja low doesn't kick, run the risk of moisture being evap by the HP further east you are. HP looks to be coming (various degrees), how/when/if Baja low kicks is the million dollar question.

[Carvers Gap]

The AIGFS(been bad all winter) trended south and much more eastward w/ its hp.  Still warm over the Tenn Valley....but almost identical to 12z at the surface.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The AI GFS is not our friend. Major warming issues. 

Yeah it's been straight Miller B. 

[housemtnTN]

TWC app actually shows snow Saturday and sunday with estimated amounts. It never calls for snow this far out lol.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The @AMZ8990ice storm....this looks like it could be a redux of that bad storm you all had.  Just not sure about E TN yet.  What year was that, @AMZ8990?  Temps were in the teens while freezing rain and sleet were falling.

I want to say 2019 or 2020, it was 2 systems over 4 days and the first one started off as all ice and sleet then changed over to snow.  That Bottom layer was 1.5” of ice with another 2” of snow on top of it, second system dropped 2.5-3” of snow with a little bit of sleet as well.  Roads were frozen solid for a week straight.  Kids were out of school for 8 days 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If I push a special code into Tropical tidbits do you think I can make the Euro AIFS come out faster??

up, up, down, down, x,y,x,y, then pause and select at the same time. 

[TellicoWx]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I "think" we are gonna want the precip(warm nose risk noted) to get out slightly in front of that high.  The 18z ICON looked ready to unload.  It was a bit flatter.  I think the GFS is in the ballpark now, but just too strong w/ the high.  But...it is within range of being almost trusted.  Remember though, with the current system today it was amped too much...so who knows.  It just amps everything like the old DGEX.  

Think it has become the DGEX lol...adding AI to make it a faster DGEX blows my mind..think they would want it to fix the bias/bugs in it.

[Carvers Gap]

I think we have two things which have to be sorted out.  The 18z GFS is highly likely in error w/ the Baja low.  The key is where the hp sets up.  Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro both manage to get the high further south, albeit w/ different setups.  The GEM para has the high further north as does the 12z AIFS.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

While we eagerly await our fate at machine learning's silicone hands, the GEFS looks torn on the Baja low:

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Think it has become the DGEX lol...adding AI to make it a faster DGEX blows my mind..think they would want it to fix the bias/bugs in it.

The AIGFS manages to kick out the feature which tells me the GFS is out to lunch.  How the 18z GFS manages to get to the same solution (at the surface) as the 12z Euro is pretty wild.  Like two ships passing in the night...they get to the same point but their origins and destinations are not the same!

I think this hp situation may take another 36 hours to get handled.  Trends for me(regarding the aifs) are what I will be watching.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is a tick south, and very wintry.  

[TellicoWx]

Just came across this...how the GFS is trained vs Euro training. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The good news is, after tonight we will all know exactly when the Euro AIFS starts for future runs. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Normal Euro has started on Pivotal:

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Just came across this...how the GFS is trained vs Euro training. 

With how abhorrent data collection and retention is for our area, that's a huge red flag. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro AIFS has started 6:13 EST

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Oddball collection of images on weatherbell, but it looks like the AIFS is kicking the baja low out. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like a smidge more suppression than 12z, but still some surface lp worming its way into the eastern valley. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[Carvers Gap]

Both AI models have HP much further east than ensembles(including their own) and deterministic runs have had.  Looks like an error to me, but I could be wrong.  Not sure I want to argue w/ a robot.  Usually turns out poorly in chess.

[TellicoWx]

@Carvers Gapyou asked earlier about verification...best could find, not alot out there. This is released once a month i think.