December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[John1122]

The Euro AI has a very potent cold front in early December that really battles the SE ridge. It slowly overtakes the western forum first and it takes 36 hours or so to cross the state. Get some rain to snow in NW Tennessee that slowly spreads eastward and lightens as it goes east. Often times the cold comes a little quicker than models manage it in those situations, but sometimes it just sticks in place.

[John1122]

The cold is wild in the midwest. 40 degrees below normal with -10s. Most of our forum area is in the 10 to 20 degrees bn range from the 3rd to the end of the run on the 6th.

[John1122]

The Euro might be trying to go at a winter storm for the western areas at 288 this run. It's warmer than the AI but cooler across our forum area with less extremes on either side of the front.

[John1122]

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

[jaxjagman]

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps  into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA  right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to  more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

[jaxjagman]

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

[jaxjagman]

In case you dont have this you can look at Planetary and Equatorial Waves using the Euro Modes,ill shut up now