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E MDR AEW: models support Car. TCG next wk


GaWx
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 All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23.
Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL:

IMG_4872.thumb.png.0488a0ba373ac1e3016a3e9de0640947.png

 

Climo:

10/11-20 TCG:

oct_11_20.png


10/21-31 TCG:

oct_21_31.png

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24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November

Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968.

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0Z
Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti

It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica.

UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this.

CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low

GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS

Euro: it again pretty similarly takes its time as prior runs with a TCG not til ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas.

At 2AM, it still didn’t make the TWO.

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