GaWx Posted Tuesday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:06 PM All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23. Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL: Climo: 10/11-20 TCG: 10/21-31 TCG: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:40 PM Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM 24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wouldn’t it be something if we make it through peak season and October and get our only US hurricane landfall in November Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Probably comes about too late for my peak season forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 0Z Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica. UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this. CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS Euro: it again pretty similarly takes its time as prior runs with a TCG not til ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas. At 2AM, it still didn’t make the TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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