Hurricane Gabrielle

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm curious to know why we have three recon planes flying all the way out to a tropical storm in the middle of the ocean, which isn't going to affect any land.

Probably for educational purposes for future storms

 

[Wannabehippie]

It looks to me that Gabrielle is currently being affected by an ULL to its west, and dry air to its north.NHC still predicts it will become a hurricane tomorrow.

 

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a290b4b1-9c78-4bd0-8b59-9ebf3196f9b8

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV)
which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this
afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing
the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels
compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been
coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the
cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70
kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However,
the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft
showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle
at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor
for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has
become a hurricane.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

Now forecast to briefly become a major.

While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still 
a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has 
become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 
1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed 
this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting 
Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now 
indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in 
intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast 
continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, 
which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but 
not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS 
guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this 
should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast 
period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at 
the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical 
characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests 
it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than 
originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the 
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.