Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

On 11/15/2025 at 7:19 PM, jaxjagman said:

Our landscapers came and did our lawn yesterday,you couldnt tell today,we had just some wind gust probably just around 15-20mph,but it was raining leaves,shitty foilage year here

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

[housemtnTN]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fall started early here, then paused, everything turned a muted color of normal fall colors, and then the leaves were blown off with several wind events.  

And yes, I did my leaves on Thursday and Saturday as well.  By Sunday...couldn't even tell the difference!  The wind was howling.  I did look at the wind forecast prior, but Sunday's wind caught me off guard.  I am not doing leaves prior to a wind event in the future.  LOL.

More than half of my leaves blew away lol. Much easier cleaning them up this year!

[John1122]

We ended up with incredible fall colors but they were all gone by the time the snow hit last Monday. They had about a week of vivid peak.

[Carvers Gap]

All I can say is this...if you don't see me commenting about the LR pattern, there is a reason for that.  LOL.  The trend has not been our friend over the weekend.  But it is the LR, and things can(and likely will) change again.  I still think we go cold, but I don't have a lot of model support nor a lot of confidence in that.  Cosgrove has to be feeling good about now - he made a good forecast.  No idea if it is right, but it is well supported, and he made that when modeling said otherwise.  If forced to make a call for December(and this could change), I would say:

Week 1: AN to normal

Week 2: transition to normal or cold

Week 3: BN

Week 4: choose your own adventure book

[Carvers Gap]

It looks like we "might" (famous last words) have some consolidation w/ the Euro Weeklies.  It looks like the cold is delayed, but now holding for the last three weeks of December.  Christmas(for now!!!) looks very cold on both the ensemble and control.  It has been a while since the ensemble and the control have been singing the same song.