John1122 Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 10:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:13 AM 14 hours ago, John1122 said: Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all. Just 0.02" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 PM 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Just 0.02" here. It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon. I saw that on Radar yesterday. Knew we were getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Oh Canada! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region. Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL? Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region. Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL? Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region. Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL? Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season. Here are our threads: Tennessee fans had trouble getting to the game in South Carolina. This was part of a string of early season snows around that time frame. Pretty sure we were the bullseye, and it shifts SE. There are some good maps and discussion in our threads. The Capitol Weather Gang has some maps as well. Indeed, there are some photos of Erwin in our observations thread. Crazy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Fountain, if you go to the Oct 24th or 25th(2014 thread above) post by @tnweathernut, there is some good discussion by John, 1234, and tnweathernut. I have no idea what I was doing during that timeframe! I didn't post until a bit closer to the event which is unusual. Anyway, 1234 posted some maps of the event from about a week out. That was a fun one to track. Pretty sure there was snow in the Williams-Bryce Stadium stands in Columbia, SC, for that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago We really need to start looking at a way to archive these threads and save them as an online library. It would be a huge loss to lose these. This forum is probably the best library of weather events dating back to 2014 for the Tenn Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Not many other models are showing this much development, but man....that will leave a mark. Partial phase, but doesn't get neutral in time for us. There are some nice upslope snows for those in the best spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks to me like the GFS and CMC at 12z are quicker w/ the energy over the GL. The Euro slows it down and drops it into the backside of the trough. That might be an error by that model as it tends to hold energy back. I'd feel better if the GFS had it. I need to check the ensembles. But...if that were legit, that is a lot of energy to crank to our SE. The sigma maps on Weatherbell are impressive at 500 for the Euro operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Hmmm. Well.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago @fountainguy97, that is uncanny. The 12z Euro drops 16" over the same high elevations spots as it did in 2014. Good find. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Compare that GFS ensemble sigma to the Euro operational at the same range.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Noticeable trend southward on 12z ensembles. Something to watch, but it is a great example of why looking at 500 maps tells the story. IF(stress IF) that holds, somebody would likely get hammered by that. Definitely will be watching this for a few days. Huge grains of salt as climatology really doesn't support snow this early, but Fountain mentioned a great example above of this actually occurring. It is uncanny how close those maps look. I will be interested to see the trends. Also interesting, 2014-15 turned out to be a great winter. I bet the QBO dipped around then off the top of my head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago MRX from this afternoon.... Ridging builds back in Thursday afternoon with warmer temperatures and quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.. A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great Lakes. A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. A few rounds of shortwaves will strengthen the upper-level trough across the region Sunday night into Monday. Deterministic and ensemble members are in good agreement even this far out from the weekend. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of temperatures less than 32 degrees across the valley next Monday night, which is a fairly strong signal this far out for a widespread freeze. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below 0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above 4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Sure looks like the 18z has held back the energy on this run and sped up the energy flowing underneath. It probably won't get to 12z Euro levels, but that is a big step at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 43 minutes ago Author Share Posted 43 minutes ago The 18z GEFS 500 sigma has it yet again, and is now stronger. Something to watch. I have prob posted too much about it, but these types of systems can be potentially fun to track. Need to get inside of four days to really get a good feel for this. Sometimes northern stream energy will trend northward over time, and the phase is missed. Right now, we want the trend on the GFS operational to be slower and a bit deeper. The GFS being too fast is a bias just as much as the Euro being too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 28 minutes ago Author Share Posted 28 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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