Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Second morning in a row with heavy frost.   Yesterday morning was much colder than expected.  Today was cold but was expected.  

[Carvers Gap]

Ensembles are picking up a fairly strong amplification on October 30th.....GEFS and EPS both.  It is a pretty strong signal.

[jaxjagman]

Thinnk this fall has alot of similarties to last fall as we head into Dec,some teleconnections surley dont match ATM

[Carvers Gap]

I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween.  The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN.  The CMC isn't that much different.  The Euro never entrains southern energy....  I am going to guess that has an inland runner.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween.  The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN.  The CMC isn't that much different.  The Euro never entrains southern energy....  I am going to guess that has an inland runner.  

Right with you. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at Apple Wx on my phone, I still expect to see temps in the upper 70s w/ sun.  Right now, all I see are 50s and rain chances.  This looks locked in for a bit.  Should get a brief respite of warm during mid Nov before getting cold again.  Long range pattern really does not want to budge.

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Right with you. 

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states.  My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states.  My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

Yeah. Mentioned to my Wife awhile ago that possibly some flurries or Snow showers Thursday night. If enough cold can get pulled down there could be some decent accumulations up high. 

[John1122]

1.25 inches of rain since yesterday at 7pm. Still coming down. 49 degrees. 

[John1122]

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today. 

[dwagner88]

2.54" Monday, not as much expected today, but we could still crack 3" for the week. Looks like even more heavy rain is possible Sunday-Tuesday.

[Carvers Gap]

I really like JB's rule that winter weather (snow, cold, ice) tends to show up where it rained a lot during fall.  Just file that away.

[Carvers Gap]

The closer we are getting to winter(and I can actually see some weeklies runs), the more I think we are playing with house money at some point.

[John1122]

Another chilly day with drenching rain. 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight.  I wonder you will see some, John?

[Carvers Gap]

I am looking forward to fall back...model runs start coming out "earlier."

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight.  I wonder you will see some, John?

I don't expect to see anything. My low is supposed to be 45 and thats basically the high tomorrow as well. Looks like snow will be 4500+ feet. 

[dwagner88]

Interesting forecast for Monday. Last night at 00Z the euro was on an island showing a heavy precipitation event over northern GA and SE TN caused by what looked like a cutoff low. It disappeared at the 12Z runs, but now the GFS has it. Official forecast for now is sunny skies, but two models have shown 4-6” of rain. 

[John1122]

1.1 inches of rain today, 3.6 inches this week so far.

[John1122]

The 18z GFS around D11 had a 1-3 inch snow for the Plateau/SWVa with more along the mountains. Around .5 to 1 inch for most of the mid-state. One of the first shots fired for accumulating snow across the lower elevations. The 12z had it but over a smaller area. Basically less than a half inch over Campbell/Scott/SE Ky/SWVa and heavier snow in the higher eastern mountains.

I doubt it will still be there on the 0z. 

[Carvers Gap]

Heavy mist and rain is falling here.  Wind chill is 41.  Nasty, rainy, cold day.  My kind of weather.  Feels like one of those rainers in December.  It almost surely has to be snowing in the mountains.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is cold...really cold.

[John1122]

.30 rain today, misty and foggy this afternoon. 

High was at midnight, the temp has been steady around 45 this afternoon. 

[John1122]

The 06z GFS threw out another clown map for some of us in the extended. Rain changing to snow. 2-3 inches over my county, more over the mountains. Major doubts that happens, but we may see our first flakes in November.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The 06z GFS threw out another clown map for some of us in the extended. Rain changing to snow. 2-3 inches over my county, more over the mountains. Major doubts that happens, but we may see our first flakes in November.

If there is one model to sniff out amplification at range, it is the GFS.  The Euro won't see it until it late.  The GFS nailed the amplification which occurred yesterday.  Things look increasingly interesting after next weekend.  Sure seems like models are missing on daytime highs(actual reality is colder).  It could just be we are hitting our highs at midnight?  The thing I really like right now is that we are not going to have erase lots of AN temps over NA.  The LR sure has modeling trying to amplify a trough over the eastern half of the US by the end of November, and that trough would bring actual winter temps with it.  

[jaxjagman]

We seem to have a similar pattern as of last year to an extent as of the date today.Most of the models have been into a good agreement recently of the MJO but now are starting to distance themselves recently it seems.Should see what the MJO does upcoming.CFS other than timing right now looks  the same AS 2024,posted up top.One difference right now should be the QBO as we was more in a de-amplified QBO but westerly to a amped Easterly.Think the last thing you want to see for a cold Nov is for the MJO to get into the WP,