INVEST 99L - 30/30 AND BUSSIN

[WxWatcher007]

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to show 
signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located 
about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system could 
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it 
moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the 
Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday. Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible 
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday and 
Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on 
Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable for 
additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[Wannabehippie]

99L right between two areas of dry air. Conditions in the central Caribbean are not favorable for development as per the NHC. It will reach there on Tuesday.

 

[jconsor]

Satellite loops this Sunday morning show 99L has a small circulation.  This is confirmed by two satellite wind estimates (ASCAT and microwave-based MIRS).  Model guidance is playing catchup big-time with #99L, with deep convection and strong vorticity persisting for several days despite model forecasts that 99L would remain an open wave with little convection. 99L's small size is likely a big factor in this (we something similar before Oscar formed last year).

Read my in-depth analysis of 99L and its potential to organize further late this week into this weekend in the western Caribbean and eventually BOC/GOM:

https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/caribbean-cruisin

[GaWx]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 In addition to the 12Z Icon being still another of its runs developing this in the W Caribbean, the 12Z Euro ens is significantly more active:

 However, the 0Z Euro ens wasn’t nearly as active as the 12Z EE.

 The 6Z GEFS by my eyeballing has 5 (17%) TS+ members. So, not dead by any means but not all that active either.

[BarryStantonGBP]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 However, the 0Z Euro ens wasn’t nearly as active as the 12Z EE.

 The 6Z GEFS by my eyeballing has 5 (17%) TS+ members. So, not dead by any means but not all that active either.

Probably a piss weak gabs then innit

[GaWx]

 The Euro ensemble, which for Invest 99L had gotten significantly more active 24 hours ago and then on the 0Z significantly less active than yesterday’s 12Z run, was very quiet on today’s 12Z with virtually nothing. Check out the difference between 12Z yesterday and 12Z today:

12Z yesterday at 216: somewhat active

 

12Z today at 192: nothing!

[WxWatcher007]

Recon shows it as a sharp wave at best. No reason to bet on this one if/until it survives the graveyard. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon shows it as a sharp wave at best. No reason to bet on this one if/until it survives the graveyard. 

LMFAOOOOOO

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the 
system located near the Windward Islands does not have a closed 
low-level circulation.  However, the system is still producing a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms and winds to near gale 
force, and these conditions are expected to affect the Windward and 
Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. The system is expected to reach 
the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast 
to become less favorable for additional development.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Wannabehippie]

As of 5pm advisory from NHC, no surface circulation was found. It has been reduced from an orange to lemon.