Eastern Tropical Atlantic Wave - 0/20

[TampaMan]

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus? 

[TampaMan]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The blues over the N/E US and reds over Canada are showing a jet stream that's pushed north well into Canada -- which will make it more difficult for any storms that develop to recurve out to sea. Other than some cool-ish sea surface temps in the eastern basin and maybe some occasional drier air, there's no real obvious feature here that could hinder development. My guess is that it might take longer to develop than some of the models currently have, but it's a real threat if it makes it into the western basin with that upper level pattern in place.

I appreciate you doing that for me. That makes me nervous, knowing there may be absolutely nothing to stop it from gaining strength and on top of that, shooting directly at Florida or into the Gulf. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, TampaMan said:

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus? 

Pretty wide spread still. Aug 18-22 most likely IF it threatens imo.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET maps are in at 168 hours. The question on that run for Conus had it gone out further is would the TD have recurved between those two H5 ridges and allow a safe recurve or would that weakness have filled in to block it and result in a U.S. threat? We’ll never know but fun to speculate:

12 UKMET at 168 (8/15 AM) sfc: moving WNW at 18 mph 430 miles ENE of PR:

 

12Z UKMET at 168 at H5: weakness between ridges just to NW could have later easily recurved it safely from Conus well OTS (though could then threaten Bermuda) had it not filled in but we’ll never know:

[TampaMan]

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. 

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, TampaMan said:

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. 

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

[TampaMan]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

I appreciate that, very much... 

[csnavywx]

28 minutes ago, Newman said:

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled.

I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling

 

I agree with this. The subseasonal forcing that's lining up is very favorable, but it still needs to consolidate out of what looks to be a large wave envelope over marginal SSTs and that's probably going to take quite a bit of time.

[BarryStantonGBP]

43 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

marginal SSTs

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

GTFIHHHHHHHHHHH

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible next week while the system 
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and 
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[dbullsfan]

4 hours ago, TampaMan said:

I appreciate that, very much... 

I've been on this forum or lurking for seemingly 10 years and the first major threat to the CUSA always has Tampa in the cone, it's like a tradition. Not once has it ended up affecting us 

[TriPol]

This has been, without a doubt, one of the most relentlessly terrible hurricane seasons in recent memory. Not terrible in the exciting, blockbuster-movie way. Terrible in the ‘please someone turn the channel’ way. We’ve been tracking every swirl of wind and puff of cloud in the Atlantic, and, friends, it’s so bad… we’re now monitoring tropical waves in Chad. Yes, Chad. A landlocked country. That’s where we are. We’ve deployed our most advanced meteorological tools, consulted every weather model, and even stared meaningfully into the middle distance — nothing. These storms have been as thrilling as a DMV waiting room with no Wi-Fi. So, I urge everyone to remain calm, stay informed, and maybe bring a book. Because if things keep going like this, our next ‘storm of interest’ will be a cumulonimbus over Saskatchewan.

[WxWatcher007]

Idub is that you?  

[BarryStantonGBP]

46 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This has been, without a doubt, one of the most relentlessly terrible hurricane seasons in recent memory. Not terrible in the exciting, blockbuster-movie way. Terrible in the ‘please someone turn the channel’ way. We’ve been tracking every swirl of wind and puff of cloud in the Atlantic, and, friends, it’s so bad… we’re now monitoring tropical waves in Chad. Yes, Chad. A landlocked country. That’s where we are. We’ve deployed our most advanced meteorological tools, consulted every weather model, and even stared meaningfully into the middle distance — nothing. These storms have been as thrilling as a DMV waiting room with no Wi-Fi. So, I urge everyone to remain calm, stay informed, and maybe bring a book. Because if things keep going like this, our next ‘storm of interest’ will be a cumulonimbus over Saskatchewan.