2025-2026 ENSO

[KakashiHatake2000]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the coming time, there will probably be 60% El Nino's, or +20% more than La Nina's.. it's just really interesting that after the 97-98 Super El Nino the opposite occurred. That's probably not a sustainable pattern though, and will probably switch in the coming time. That's why they have also developed the "RONI", which is relative average compared to the global warming (if global warming is +0.5, and Nino 3,4 is 0.0, that's a -0.5 RONI). 

i see now thank you im glad to see that we are finally breaking out of this constant la nina pattern at least im not sure of the not good things that would come with that though i wish we could do something if anything to fix that sort of thing but i have no idea what but with the second to last thing you said are you saying that we will be in a el nino pattern and then go back to a la nina pattern afterwards 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I actually found that in the last 33 years our warmest Winters for the whole US have been in east-based El Nino's albeit, rare as they are. I think that means in the coming time El Nino's, and east-based El Nino's may happen with warmer Winters. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh no thats not good in terms of cold temps snow and winter weather 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

For the 2nd point, I'm explaining the relative ENSO index. Since the whole globe is warming, it maps ENSO relative to that global warming skew.. so I'm saying that if global SSTs are +0.5 warmer on average, if Nino 3.4 (the strongest correlated ENSO region of the 4) is +0.5, that is actually even with the global skew, or "0.0". It's called the RONI, and in the last 20 years the RONI has had better correlation with the northern and southern hemisphere Hadley Cell pattern (-PNA) than regular ENSO (ONI). 

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh i see thank you stormchaserchuck1

[KakashiHatake2000]

but at least with what you said stormchaserchuck1 at least a el nino with a warm east is albeit rare 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

but at least with what you said stormchaserchuck1 at least a el nino with a warm east is albeit rare 

I'm starting to think the odds of an El Nino next year are lower, but higher chances 2 years from now (27-28).. maybe a Weak El Nino next year

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The article is actually based around on the same paper. 

Yeah, that’s why I posted it since it went into more detail on the same paper that you posted.

This new -PDO is defined more by a warmer Western Pacific and stronger Aleutian Ridge from the older days. This leads to a further north storm tracks during the winter through the Great Lakes with warmer and less snowy conditions for our area.

The older -PDO with a cooler Eastern Pacific and less WPAC warming had a weaker Aleutian Ridge. So we would often get colder and snowier winters under that -PDO regime from the last 40s into mid 70s.

Plus the background climate has warmed so much more in general since then. This is why the Southeast Ridge has expanded so much over the last decade and it was often not even a factor back in those days. In addition, warming of the Atlantic resembling a +AMO is also probably boosting the 500 mb heights near the East Coast.

This new pattern of mid-latitude rising 500mb heights and SSTs resembles a mid-latitude El Niño while the tropics have been more in La Niña mode.

[KakashiHatake2000]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm starting to think the odds of an El Nino next year are lower, but higher chances 2 years from now (27-28)

oh i see im guessing we would be in a la nina and enso for the rest of the year 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh i see im guessing we would be in a la nina and enso for the rest of the year 

This year, climate models seem to support a cooling of ENSO in the coming months. The SOI has been a good gauge for a few years now.. it has been positive for the last few days. A positive July would be the 10th straight month with +SOI, which would be a la nina or cold enso indicator. The subsurface was really warm in the western subsurface in the spring, but has since neutralized.. so yeah, maybe near neutral, or slightly cool for the rest of this year. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This year, climate models seem to support a cooling of ENSO in the coming months. The SOI has been a good gauge for a few years now.. it has been positive for the last few days. A positive July would be the 10th straight month with +SOI, which would be a la nina or cold enso indicator. The subsurface was really warm in the western subsurface in the spring, but has since neutralized.. so yeah, maybe near neutral, slightly cool for the rest of this year. 

oh okay but what about the recent climate prediction center post with the weak la nina and going back to enso next year

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, KakashiHatake2000 said:

oh okay but what about the recent climate prediction center post with the weak la nina and going back to enso next year

I didn't see the post. Do you have a link? 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1943294137941528908?

[KakashiHatake2000]

i know it wont embed on here but this was posted yesterday from the climate prediction center

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm surprised that they favor a La Nina over ENSO Neutral for the rest of this year, just based on the ONI.. I guess they expect cooling in the coming months, along with seasonal models. SOI last year never went strong positive when a lot of things were pointing to a Moderate-Strong La Nina early in the year, and it ended up being an accurate predictor, per ONI it never even went La Nina last year. The SOI has been positive, July could be 10 months in row, although only slightly so, so I guess they are thinking it will accurately predict again. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

so in other words that means 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, KakashiHatake2000 said:

so in other words that means 

They are colder than I am for ENSO the rest of this year, but they probably have good reason with models coming within range. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They are colder than I am for ENSO the rest of this year, but they probably have good reason with models coming within range. 

oh okay gotcha i dont even want to know what is going to go down when it gets to enso in the spring as im not a severe weather person or fan

[KakashiHatake2000]

also i saw some people at least la nina making a comeback from a few days ago just to let you know and catch you up to speed

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Usually you like to see the subsurface colder if an official La Nina is to emerge

[KakashiHatake2000]

is that what is going on with those photos you posted stormchaserchuck1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, the subsurface is weak right now. It's not a perfect predictor, but it has led by several months for the last few years. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha thank you stormchaserchuck1

[KakashiHatake2000]

i hope that this global warming with our planet isnt something permanent either would things or anything go back to normal 

[KakashiHatake2000]

sorry i think i consumed a little bit too much coffee at once if it happened to seem like i was in a panic

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This new pattern of mid-latitude rising 500mb heights and SSTs resembles a mid-latitude El Niño while the tropics have been more in La Niña mode.

El Nino favors cooler waters in the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell meets the Mid-latitude Cell... it's the opposite of what we have now from Japan to north of Hawaii

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does anyone know that the top global sea-level pressure correlation during an ENSO event is actually NW of Australia and in Indonesia.. it's a total global-tropical phenomenon.. that >0.6 correlation in the equilateral-Atlantic is impressive, too.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino favors cooler waters in the mid-latitudes where the Hadley Cell meets the Mid-latitude Cell... it's the opposite of what we have now from Japan to north of Hawaii

That’s the composite for the old days. Our new El Nino back in 23-24 had the mid-latitude marine heatwaves from Japan across the Atlantic to near Spain. So it resulted in a record warm pattern for North America even though the ONI was much weaker than 15-16 and 97-98.