TV Severe Weather2025-?

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/cumberlandwx/status/2084379774328475732?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg
Another tornado confirmed in Cumberland plateau both ef0 no injuries or fatalities also a video of it


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[KakashiHatake2000]

Marginal risk issued for southeast eastern tn today 5% wind


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[jaxjagman]

21 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Marginal risk issued for southeast eastern tn today 5% wind


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SE TN needs some rain,most of that part has been more scattered rains,its basically the only part of TN thats in a drought right now

[KakashiHatake2000]

I see hopefully they get some today


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[John1122]

The line of storms were disorganized over my area and it only rained for about 10 minutes. They looked  strong just to my northwest and southwest. Once the line passed my area it has rapidly developed and there's a ton of thunder and lighting just to my south, extremely heavy rain too it appears. Not sure if any upstream redevelopment will happen or not today.

[jaxjagman]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0976
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081812Z - 090000Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will promote concerns for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon and early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling
cloud tops across areas of northern MS, western TN and northwest
AL in association with developing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Additional activity is also noted farther east
across the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern TN. The activity
is initiating and expanding in coverage as a well-defined
mid-level vort center over eastern AR drifts east into a very
moist and unstable airmass pooled up across the broader Mid-South.
Farther east, there is also the influence from terrain and
differential heating boundaries.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches
are in place across the region. The strong boundary layer heating
with solar insolation will continue to help drive increasing
levels of instability over the next few hours, and this will
couple with the evolution of smaller-scale outflow boundary
activity for additional convection to develop and expand in
coverage. Local orographic ascent near areas of elevation will
also be a key player in driving more areas of convection.

The morning 12Z RAOB soundings from KLZK, KBNA and KBMX confirm
rather high WBZ heights and plenty of moisture extending through
the vertical column. This will support high efficiency with this
afternoon's convection with high rainfall rates that will be
capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

The lack of effective bulk shear suggests the convective mode
should mainly be pulse in nature, but there may be enough outflow
boundary collisions and cold pool activity to facilitate some
loosely organized multi-cell convection. This coupled with slow
cell-motions and some cell-merger potential may help yield some
localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals over the next several
hours. This will drive a threat for at least isolated areas of
flash flooding, with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk
for impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...
MRX...OHX...PAH...

[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has day 2 marginal slight risk out for tomorrow for east TN Cumberland plateau for 5-15 percent hail https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC also has day 3 marginal risk out with 5 percent probabilistic for northern middle TN and majority east TN it’s slanted a little bit https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has marginal and slight today for TN starting between in i65 and east tn for 5-15% wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html and marginal for tomorrow same places I believe 5% wind and small part of TN in 5% hail https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has marginal for majority of tn for 5% damaging winds https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has issued day 1 marginal risk for 5% damaging wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html also a day 3 marginal risk out for southeastern tn 5% probabilities https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

Spc has day 2 slight risk and marginal risk out for Cumberland plateau parts of middle east tn for 5-15% damaging wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


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[KakashiHatake2000]

SPC has day 1 marginal risk and slight risk for both east of i65 in middle Tennessee and also in East Tennessee for 5-15-30% damaging wind https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


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[nrgjeff]

Things should heat up soon from MRX to TRI, eventually unzippering through Knox and Chatt. Monday Aug. 17

The SPC bumped up wind to 30% (not shown) but it is still Slight because no hatch. We'll see if 30% verifies. Requires the said multiple bowing segments. Otherwise 15% would do. I suspect any bowing segment would provide some nice photography. Just don't get struck by lightning. This airmass (very deep CAPE) has promoted prolific lightning for a week now.