TV Severe Weather2025-?

[vortexse93]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wednesday is another outflow boundary special. May might feel late for the Deep South but early May is still prime time climo down there. LLJ is gonna be veered off quite a bit; but, strong upper-level winds will create robust speed shear and decent directional shear right on the outflow boundary.

Said boundary will be key. Away from that locally higher low-level shear the storm relative shear won't quite support tornadoes. I think the narrow 10% is the right call for Wed. Otherwise it's straight wind and perhaps hail from hotter cells. Storm mode looks like a mix of segments and blobs, with a few sups.

Valid Wed. May 6

I am going to share this post and will add my thoughts to it.

Tomorrow will be depend on the development and where the any potential outflow boundaries will setup at tomorrow afternoon/evening. Model guidance continues to show a messy line of supercells to develop across Central MS, right where the 10% tornado risk is currently highlighted in the graphic. 

The decision to storm chase or not remains up in the air as storm development will be on the edge of the Delta in to I-55 and I-20 area. Best case would be for a supercell to develop to my immediate north and meet it there before sun goes down which would be very doable. Will make the decision tomorrow afternoon as it looks like the storms will be close enough for me to make such a last minute decision.