2025 forecast contests -- enter for August 2025 contest (deadline 06z August 1st)

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.5

 

NYC: +1.7

 

BOS: +1.7

 

ORD: +1.8

 

ATL: +1.0

 

IAH: +1.0

 

DEN: +2.0

 

PHX: +2.0

 

SEA: +2.0

[yoda]

I'll try this this month if that's okay Roger

 

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +0.9

ORD: +0.7

ATL: +0.9

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +1.6

SEA: +1.8

[Roger Smith]

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800.

So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September.  In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above.

We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. 

We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31. 

[so_whats_happening]

Totally forgot

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1        +.8     +1      +.9     +.6      +.5       +1.5    +1.8    +1.6

 

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for August 2025

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5

RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2

Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8

wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9

____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7  

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6

Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

===============

____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

______________________________________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

A report on anomalies in the first two weeks of August 2025 ...

_______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5

___ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5

(15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. 

SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for August 2025

Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated.

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

hudsonvalley21 __________ 34 _ 48 _ 52 __ 134 __ 86 _ 26 _ 80 __ 192 _ 326 __ 86 _ 44 _ 90 __ 220 ____ 546

wxallannj ________________ 34 _ 52 _ 50 __ 136 __ 96 _ 46 _ 70 __ 212 _ 348 __ 84 _ 76 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 588

RJay _____________________40 _ 56 _ 56 __ 152 __ 96 _ 50 _ 90 __ 236 _ 388 __100 _60 _ 90 __ 250 ____ 638

Roger Smith _____________ 40 _ 60 _ 54 __ 154__100 _ 20 _ 54 __ 174 _ 328 __ 74 _ 76 _ 66 __ 216 ____ 544  

Yoda _____________________42 _ 68 _ 72 __ 182 __ 74 _ 52 _ 84 __ 210 _ 392 __ 82 _ 52 _ 94 __ 228 ____ 620

wxdude64 _______________46 _ 58 _ 54 __ 158 __ 82 _ 58 _ 98 __ 238 _ 396 __ 78 _ 62 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 628

____ Consensus _________48 _ 68 _ 70 __ 186 __ 78 _ 52 _ 88 __ 218 _ 404 __ 88 _ 58 _ 96 __ 242 ____ 646  

Scotty Lightning _________ 50 _ 70 _ 80 __ 200 __80 _ 40 _ 70 __ 190 _ 390 __ 70 _ 50 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 590

so_whats_happening ____ 50 _ 74 _ 70 __ 194 __ 78 _ 58 _100 __ 236 _ 430 __ 90 _ 56 _ 98 __ 244 ____ 674

Tom ______________________58 _ 80 _ 82 __ 220 __ 64 _ 52 _ 88 __ 204 _ 424 __ 84 _ 46 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 652

DonSutherland1 __________64 _ 80 _ 78 __ 222 __ 68 _ 66 _ 94 __ 228 _ 450 __ 92 _ 62 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 690

StormchaserChuck1 _____ 66 _ 82 _ 74 __ 222 __ 68 _ 68 _ 94 __ 230 _ 452 __100 _66 _ 84 __ 250 ____ 702

____ Normal ______________70 _ 90 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 70 _ 90 __ 220 _ 470 __ 60 _ 20 _ 70 __ 150 ____ 620

RodneyS _________________98 _ 84 _ 98 __ 280 __ 78 _100 _92 __ 270 _ 550 __ 96 _ 50 _ 92 __ 238 ____ 788

===============

____ Persistence __________ 42 _ 50 _ 52 __ 144 __ 98 _ 02 _ 86 __ 186 _ 330 __ 60 _ 48 _ 86 __ 194 ____ 524

______________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL __ All currently would be wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC,

ORD would be a loss for wxallannj (+2.2) and a win for Roger Smith (+2.0) but at +2.1 it's a tie, and at +1.9 or lower, not an extreme forecast.

PHX would be a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8).

IAH, DEN and SEA would not be extreme forecast qualifiers. 

========================================

 

(actual forecasts)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5

RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2

Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8

wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9

____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7  

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6

Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

===============

____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

______________

[Roger Smith]

Current scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025

 

TABLE of ERRORS to date

_ _ _ _ errors in italics can only increase (forecasts lower than actual or equal)

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL

Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 

Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34

Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23

hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22

so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 

___ Consensus __________02 _  01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 

wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21

DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19

RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17

wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19

... will be adjusted whenever seasonal max change at locations ...

... BOS can no longer affect contest standings (all forecasts already passed)

 

(forecasts)

Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 

Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99

Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96

hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97

so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93

___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96

DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95

RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93