Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,182
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

2025 forecast contests -- enter for August 2025 contest (deadline 06z August 1st)


 Share

Recommended Posts

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800.

So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September.  In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above.

We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. 

We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Table of forecasts for August 2025

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5

RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2

Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8

wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9

____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7  

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6

Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

===============

____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

______________________________________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA. 

 

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

A report on anomalies in the first two weeks of August 2025 ...

_______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5

___ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5

(15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. 

SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for August 2025

Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated.

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

hudsonvalley21 __________ 34 _ 48 _ 52 __ 134 __ 84 _ 26 _ 80 __ 190 _ 324 __ 86 _ 44 _ 90 __ 220 ____ 544

wxallannj ________________ 34 _ 52 _ 50 __ 136 __ 96 _ 46 _ 70 __ 212 _ 348 __ 84 _ 76 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 588

RJay _____________________40 _ 56 _ 56 __ 152 __ 96 _ 50 _ 90 __ 236 _ 388 __100 _60 _ 90 __ 250 ____ 638

Roger Smith _____________ 40 _ 60 _ 54 __ 154__10020 _ 54 __ 174 _ 328 __ 74 _ 76 66 __ 216 ____ 544  

Yoda _____________________42 _ 68 _ 72 __ 182 __ 74 _ 52 _ 84 __ 210 _ 392 __ 82 _ 52 _ 94 __ 228 ____ 620

wxdude64 _______________46 _ 58 _ 54 __ 158 __ 82 _ 58 _ 98 __ 238 _ 396 __ 78 _ 62 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 628

____ Consensus _________48 _ 68 _ 70 __ 186 __ 78 _ 52 _ 88 __ 218 _ 404 __ 88 _ 58 _ 96 __ 242 ____ 646  

Scotty Lightning _________ 50 _ 70 _ 80 __ 200 __80 _ 40 _ 70 __ 190 _ 390 __ 70 _ 50 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 590

so_whats_happening ____ 50 _ 74 _ 70 __ 194 __ 78 _ 58 _100 __ 236 _ 430 __ 90 _ 56 _ 98 __ 244 ____ 674

Tom ______________________58 _ 80 _ 82 __ 220 __ 64 _ 52 _ 88 __ 204 _ 424 __ 84 _ 46 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 652

DonSutherland1 __________64 _ 80 _ 78 __ 222 __ 68 _ 66 _ 94 __ 228 _ 450 __ 92 _ 62 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 690

StormchaserChuck1 _____ 66 _ 82 _ 74 __ 222 __ 68 _ 68 _ 94 __ 230 _ 452 __100 _66 _ 84 __ 250 ____ 702

____ Normal ______________70 _ 90 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 70 _ 90 __ 220 _ 470 __ 60 _ 20 _ 70 __ 150 ____ 620

RodneyS _________________98 _ 84 _ 98 __ 280 __ 78 _100 _92 __ 270550 __ 96 _ 50 _ 92 __ 238 ____ 788

===============

____ Persistence __________ 42 _ 50 _ 52 __ 144 __ 98 _ 02 _ 86 __ 186 _ 330 __ 60 _ 48 _ 86 __ 194 ____ 524

______________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL __ All currently would be wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC,

ORD would be a loss for wxallannj (+2.2) and a win for Roger Smith (+2.0) but at +2.1 it's a tie, and at +1.9 or lower, not an extreme forecast.

PHX would be a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8).

IAH, DEN and SEA would not be extreme forecast qualifiers. 

========================================

 

(actual forecasts)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5

RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2

Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8

wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9

____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7  

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6

Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

===============

____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

______________

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...