2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32

Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29

[BarryStantonGBP]

Somehow I’m not seeing how the euro long term vs the mjo phases match

[BarryStantonGBP]

sod off

 

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

sod off

 

 

The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin.

probably gonna be a poundshop erin (dollar store for yous lot)

[BarryStantonGBP]

oi lad @GaWx are these 2 waves or 1 wave

 

Quote

Teban54 Category 5
Posts: 3221 Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

•  

#616 by Teban54 » Thu Aug 14, 2025 8:47 am 

BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro ensembles animated to try to show the wave behind erin on here, quite a few wind up in the Bahamas. 

https://i.postimg.cc/9fRGPksY/64844100.gif

0z EPS is slightly more aggressive with this wave, with about 40-50% of the members showing a low. Wide spread from Caribbean to the Bahamas.

This run also shows some support for the following wave, on a much more clear-cut recurve pattern (even earlier than Erin), but pretty weak in both support for development and intensity.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

23 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29

Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe

12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32

[BarryStantonGBP]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe

12Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32

MATE DEEPMINDS HAD THIS ONE VOMITING IN THE GOA ON 29TH AUGUST

[RaleighNC]

As fun as they are to follow, it is no fun to be in the bullseye. Conditions non-conducive to development is A-OK with me. Sorry for you lot in Old Blighty who want to map these buggers.

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

As fun as they are to follow, it is no fun to be in the bullseye. Conditions non-conducive to development is A-OK with me. Sorry for you lot in Old Blighty who want to map these buggers.

I know I'm not the only one that wants this place to continue being what it has been (for the most part)--a place for analysis and sharing information & passion for tropical meteorology. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, RaleighNC said:

As fun as they are to follow, it is no fun to be in the bullseye. Conditions non-conducive to development is A-OK with me. Sorry for you lot in Old Blighty who want to map these buggers.

MATE I SURVIVED OPHELIA AND LORENZO THEY WRECKED MY LOCAL ASDA

[RaleighNC]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

MATE I SURVIVED OPHELIA AND LORENZO THEY WRECKED MY LOCAL ASDA

That's great. I'm just saying you'll never see me weep when one of these SOBs turns fish. I was in Hugo, Floyd and Florence. No thank you to any more.

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

That's great. I'm just saying you'll never see me weep when one of these SOBs turns fish. I was in Hugo, Floyd and Florence. No thank you to any more.

 I’ve already had the equivalent of a very wet TC with 12” of rain so far this month even without a TC! The last thing this area needs is more heavy rain as well as trees being easily toppled due to a high water table. After strong effects in ‘24 from the combo of Debby (10.9” of rain) and Helene (115 hour power outage/loss of food that took only high end TS winds/gusts to ~75 mph), I’d especially love a break. (By the way, FEMA never paid me for the food losses it promised even though I applied on the phone. )

 Of course what I got pales in comparison to what others got from Helene to my W and NW and from Milton in FL. They’re the ones that especially need a break! Among other problems, the homeowner’s insurance situation is already ugly in much of the SE. 

 I obviously like to follow and discuss these monsters and enjoy the challenge of forecasting what they’ll do. They’re also pretty to look at on satellite pics and are absolutely fascinating, but I want no part of them! Because of that, a boring quiet rest of the season wouldn’t bother me. However, I won’t let that desire bias my posts away from objectivity.

 Back to the present: 0Z UKMET has no followup TC to Erin unlike the prior runs.

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

That's great. I'm just saying you'll never see me weep when one of these SOBs turns fish. I was in Hugo, Floyd and Florence. No thank you to any more.

Were you in Georges?

[Kevin Reilly]

I guess we should ignore the direct strike at Daytona beach in 11 days August 26th?

On 8/10/2025 at 2:22 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

AND OF COURSE

 

On 8/6/2025 at 9:39 PM, Floydbuster said:

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I guess we should ignore the direct strike at Daytona beach in 11 days August 26th?

Oi kev did ya check the ec aifs on that one lad

[BarryStantonGBP]

Gonna make a bold prediction

the names Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Karen and Lorenzo will be 2025’s majors 

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Oi kev did ya check the ec aifs on that one lad

Yea so Erin is kind of the lead running back to scour out the remaining Saharan Dust and dry air opening the door to other features as we move towards the peak of hurricane season. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yea so Erin is kind of the lead running back to scour out the remaining Saharan Dust and dry air opening the door to other features as we move towards the peak of hurricane season. 

Won’t be surprised if Erin takes the role of the cleaning lady

cleaning out school dinner crumbs on the table (dry air) before more kids come to play 

and they’d have an easier time 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I guess we should ignore the direct strike at Daytona beach in 11 days August 26th?

 -Just for the record fwiw, the 6Z GFS hits Daytona on Aug 29 (way out at 2 weeks)

-Much more statistically significant than just a fantasyland op run, its ensemble is unsettlingly pretty active in/near the SE US during Aug 26-30. Here’s a snapshot as of hour 294 (12Z on 8/27):

 

-During this active period, GEFS has the MJO in/near phase 5. It’s not either of the 2 most active phases for H hits per day during Jul-Sep since 1975 (phases 2 and 8), but phase 5 has had the 3rd highest ratio of hits/day.

- During phase 5, these 10 Hs hit the Conus: Francine (2024), Ike (2008), Humberto (2007), Ophelia (2005), Isabel (2003), Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bob (1991), Elena (1985), and Babe (1977). Two areas were most impacted by these 10: NC (Ophelia, Isabel, Bertha, Fran, and Bob) and upper TX to FL panhandle (Francine, Ike, Humberto, Elena, and Babe).