GaWx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 12 hours ago, GaWx said: 12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28 1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32 Followup to above: 0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Somehow I’m not seeing how the euro long term vs the mjo phases match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago sod off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: sod off The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin. probably gonna be a poundshop erin (dollar store for yous lot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago oi lad @GaWx are these 2 waves or 1 wave Quote Teban54 Category 5Posts: 3221 Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #616 by Teban54 » Thu Aug 14, 2025 8:47 am BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro ensembles animated to try to show the wave behind erin on here, quite a few wind up in the Bahamas. https://i.postimg.cc/9fRGPksY/64844100.gif 0z EPS is slightly more aggressive with this wave, with about 40-50% of the members showing a low. Wide spread from Caribbean to the Bahamas. This run also shows some support for the following wave, on a much more clear-cut recurve pattern (even earlier than Erin), but pretty weak in both support for development and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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