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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season


BarryStantonGBP
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12 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32

Followup to above:
0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33
0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29

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oi lad @GaWx are these 2 waves or 1 wave

 

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Teban54 Category 5
Category 5Posts: 3221 Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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#616 by Teban54 » Thu Aug 14, 2025 8:47 am 

BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro ensembles animated to try to show the wave behind erin on here, quite a few wind up in the Bahamas. 

https://i.postimg.cc/9fRGPksY/64844100.gif

0z EPS is slightly more aggressive with this wave, with about 40-50% of the members showing a low. Wide spread from Caribbean to the Bahamas.

This run also shows some support for the following wave, on a much more clear-cut recurve pattern (even earlier than Erin), but pretty weak in both support for development and intensity.

Image

 

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DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

image.thumb.png.8fab08bc9ccb2e318e0b056247512c1c.pngimage.png.3452da2c8ae317096e67beb433457240.png

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23 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

image.thumb.png.8fab08bc9ccb2e318e0b056247512c1c.pngimage.png.3452da2c8ae317096e67beb433457240.png

image.thumb.png.09cc9ab4ee4bec5478008b7ec1c28ce3.png

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