GaWx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 12 hours ago, GaWx said: 12Z UK: for several runs has had this after Erin: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 24.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 24.3W 1010 28 1200UTC 20.08.2025 168 15.7N 28.1W 1009 32 Followup to above: 0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago Somehow I’m not seeing how the euro long term vs the mjo phases match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago sod off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: sod off The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin. probably gonna be a poundshop erin (dollar store for yous lot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago oi lad @GaWx are these 2 waves or 1 wave Quote Teban54 Category 5Posts: 3221 Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #616 by Teban54 » Thu Aug 14, 2025 8:47 am BobHarlem wrote:12z Euro ensembles animated to try to show the wave behind erin on here, quite a few wind up in the Bahamas. https://i.postimg.cc/9fRGPksY/64844100.gif 0z EPS is slightly more aggressive with this wave, with about 40-50% of the members showing a low. Wide spread from Caribbean to the Bahamas. This run also shows some support for the following wave, on a much more clear-cut recurve pattern (even earlier than Erin), but pretty weak in both support for development and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago 12 hours ago, GaWx said: Followup to above: 0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29 Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe 12Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 14 minutes ago Author Share Posted 14 minutes ago 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: Followup: this looks like an AEW preceding the one the last two UKMET runs had with a TD forming 200 miles E of Guadalupe 12Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 16.4N 58.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.08.2025 168 16.4N 58.4W 1009 32 MATE DEEPMINDS HAD THIS ONE VOMITING IN THE GOA ON 29TH AUGUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now