BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. 2 hours ago, nvck said: What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit 3 hours ago, crownweather said: Agreed. It's complete crap. None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity. The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers. If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you. tales and whines from bradford lezak > mainstream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 2 minutes ago, FPizz said: Worse than Jim Witt Just now, BarryStantonGBP said: tales and whines from bradford lezak > mainstream lezak > mainstream forecasters keep that noise down or I'll get bradford city council on you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 and yes I will keep posting sources from Zach fradella and gary lezak throughout the season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: lezak > mainstream forecasters keep that noise down or I'll get bradford city council on you Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum. You've now been placed on my ignore list. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 23 minutes ago, crownweather said: Wow and that's why I'm really glad there's a ignore member feature on this forum. You've now been placed on my ignore list. I will stay loyal to the church of saint Lezak and Fradella here's 2023 for example (was 20/7/3) crown: saint lezak: Keep writing essays bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 Damn, that was worse than the guy last year who kept using nothing but hipster lingo that 80% of the people couldn’t understand. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 12 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Damn, that was worse than the guy last year who kept using nothing but hipster lingo that 80% of the people couldn’t understand. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted July 9 Share Posted July 9 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: I will stay loyal to the church of saint Lezak and Fradella here's 2023 for example (was 20/7/3) crown: saint lezak: Keep writing essays bro! Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast. The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall. Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall. I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine. So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s. Now, you're going on my ignore/block list as I don't have the oxygen to deal with your cult like obsession with LRC. My 2023 forecast: The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 4 minutes ago, crownweather said: Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast. The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall. Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall. I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine. So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s. My 2023 forecast: The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: not a quark pal lezak beats out the bradford forecasting centre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 14 minutes ago, crownweather said: Interesting and telling that you picked & chose what parts of my forecast. The entire map from 2023's hurricane season forecast from myself called for a very high risk of a landfall for exactly where Idalia made landfall. Also very high threat for a impact for E North Carolina right where TS Ophelia made landfall. I'd love to see where LRC forecast their landfalls for 2023 and compare them to mine. So, to answer your question - yes, I'll certainly keep "writing essays bro", just like I have since the early 1990s. My 2023 forecast: The actual tracks for the 2023 hurricane season: so did saint lezak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 9 Author Share Posted July 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 now here's a storm2k post I actually agree with Quote Let me preface things with this: I'm very willing to eat crow and own up to it if what I'm about to say is proven to be wrong in the end. However....I personally think that some of the speculations (especially on various wx social media posts online) that stability this year is going to be a major problem and detriment to overall Atlantic impacts/activity because of the warm subtropics are a *tad bit* overblown. Here's why I think that is the case. Here's where we are now, sst anomaly configuation-wise:Speaks for itself. Subtropics are much warmer than average. Deep tropics are somewhat warmer than average.This is late August 2017:Honestly, at least in the Atlantic, sort of similar to what we're seeing now. Warm deep tropics, cool band just to the north, and warm subtropics. Also, check out the very warm waters near Greenland, Iceland, and the UK.Now, you would think that if it was as simple as warm subtropics robs deep tropics action, then that time period would've seen very little activity. However, check the date. This was what the Atlantic looked like between Harvey's devastating Texas landfall and Irma's birth. The true story is anything but quiet!And now, late August 2022:Now THIS...this is how you're going to get serious stability problems. The subtropics are INSANELY warmer than average, and the deep tropics are only somewhat warmer than average. This image of the Atlantic was around the notorious wavebreaking/mid-level dry air period when not a single named storm was able to form.So...I guess my point here is, unless 2025 experiences as drastic as a warmup as 2022, especially with the subtropics/tropics sst anomaly discrepancy, then I'd have to imagine that stability would only go so far as to hamper the season. The long range models have their ideas, and we rightfully and obviously go off of them to make judgements. But...the facts present themselves as well. We already had 3 named storms (if wavebreaking/mid-level dry air was such an issue now, then I highly doubt we would've even seen named storms form), 2 of which ended up becoming impactful systems (Barry a weak but bona fide tropical-born system and Chantal a Carolinas tropical storm right at the cusp of what could've been a robust strengthening phase). Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem, at least as of recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 I thought Storm2k Had been closed. When I go to that site I get a 403 message.I was confused as i have seen a few references to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, Roger said: I thought Storm2k Had been closed. When I go to that site I get a 403 message.I was confused as i have seen a few references to it. can you access it or is access still rotted out for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: now here's a storm2k post I actually agree with -That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, GaWx said: -That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer Got it and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right. Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity but let’s face it that ain’t happening anytime soon so let me get this straight if you’re not a boomer your take = permabull therefore = doesn’t count got it permabull = the guy who’s actually right meanwhile “bearish” posts always “models say”—then models flop every. single. time. it’s always the same bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months never fails they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year by August or september they’re radio silent when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak seriously and the whole “permabull” thing just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings bearish = broken model hopium permabull = actually right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, GaWx said: -That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way “Bullish” = opinion of a younger person got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, GaWx said: -That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way Reminder: 20 KANSAS CITY, MO, UNITED STATES, September 4, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- While the meteorological community braces for an inaccurate hurricane season prediction from most sources, Weather 20/20 stands apart, marking the third consecutive year of leading predictions in the meteorological community. Utilizing its innovative and patent pending Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) methodology, Weather 20/20 has consistently outperformed forecasts from universities, government agencies, and private meteorological firms. Dominating Seasonal Forecasting with Precision This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has left many experts puzzled, with major forecasters predicting a highly active season. The University of Pennsylvania forecasted 27-39 named storms, Weather Bell expected 25-30, and Colorado State University predicted 20-27, as shown on the Barcelona Supercomputing Center site, which tracks these seasonal predictions. In contrast, Weather 20/20’s forecast of 14-19 named storms has proven more aligned with the season’s slow first half. To date, there have been only five named storms, two below the average, yet still within the range predicted by Weather 20/20. In contrast, the forecasts of the 25 other organizations are resembling the efforts of a confused quarterback for a disorganized team—scrambling under pressure and nearing mathematical elimination for the 2024 season. God save our gracious King! Long live our noble King! God save the King! Send him victorious, Happy and glorious, Long to reign over us, God save the King! The Scientific Reasons for The Lower Number of Named Storms Gary Lezak, Founder & CEO of Weather 20/20 explains, “Our accurate predictions are not coincidental but are based on the solid foundations of the LRC, which observed early signs of a milder hurricane season as far back as November 2023. Moreover, while other forecasting models heavily relied on an expected shift from El Niño to La Niña – which did not materialize as anticipated – our forecasts were grounded in the consistent pattern of the LRC.” Endorsements from the Field Chris Huggins, Operation Manager for Operation BBQ Relief, attests to the precision of Weather 20/20’s forecasts: “We have relied on their incredibly accurate predictions for over five years, which have consistently allowed us ample time, weeks to prepare for disaster relief efforts.” Predicting Where & When Significant Weather Events Will Occur Weather 20/20’s expertise extends beyond seasonal forecasting to precise predictions of specific weather disasters. The accuracy was highlighted earlier this season with Hurricanes Debby, Beryl, and Ernesto, and historically with major hurricane disasters like Harvey and Ida. “Our forecasts provide up to 91% accuracy in predicting severe weather events, offering vital insights that significantly enhance preparedness and response strategies, and help businesses make profitable supply, demand, and staffing decisions,” states Lezak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 5 hours ago, GaWx said: -That poster has “cat 5” in the name and identifies as an early 20s pre-med college student per his/her profile. -That person, who has been posting there since the 2021 season, comes across as intelligent and writes well. However, he/she is also a permabull. I recall no clearly bearish seasonal posts from him/her these last 4+ seasons. -The bullish bias is hinted at by the wording used in that post you just posted: 1. doesn’t think stability will be a major “problem”; stability is a “problem” from perspective of someone who wants more activity 2. “Are the subtropics being anomalously warm really that big of a problem”…uses the word “problem” in a similar way The ocean doesn’t care about bearish feelings the atmosphere doesn’t care about bearish feelings clinatology doesn’t care about bearish feelings Someone said: Fwiw EPS has it finally returning to a favorable phase the first half of August. I know in recent years we've mostly had to wait until the final two weeks of the month for activity, but I would assume this would open a potential window in the deep tropics around that timeframe. 1 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 RIP Andy's Netflix subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 L to EPS Caribbean shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: The posters/forecasters I favor the heaviest have neither a bullish nor a bearish bias from my perspective. Category5Kaiju has great points He should visit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS: The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks! June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly) July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly) It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year. Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 12 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS: The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks! June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly) July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly) It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year. Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021). This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 1 minute ago, GaWx said: This is another S2K repost for those who don’t realize it. You should be giving credit to others when you copy their posts. How do I quote the user then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: How do I quote the user then I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 Just now, GaWx said: I’m just saying that you should preface the repost by saying something like “Here’s a copy of a post from a Storm2K poster”. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer Got it and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right. Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity but let’s face it that ain’t happening anytime soon so let me get this straight if you’re not a boomer your take = permabull therefore = doesn’t count got it permabull = the guy who’s actually right meanwhile “bearish” posts always “models say”—then models flop every. single. time. it’s always the same bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months never fails they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year by August or september they’re radio silent when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak seriously and the whole “permabull” thing just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings bearish = broken model hopium permabull = actually right dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted July 10 Author Share Posted July 10 14 minutes ago, nvck said: dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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