Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data

[chubbs]

On 5/31/2025 at 2:35 PM, ChescoWx said:

@chubbssays "We have reviewed the raw data from those 3 stations over and over again. Coatesville and West Chester moved from towns to less built up locations and cooled by 2F. While Phoenixville ran much warmer than surrounding stations in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s due to higher afternoon temperatures and time of day bias"

You never answer the question if Coatesville and West Chester cooled with moves....why did NCEI cool those stations and the county to levels below any of those 3 raw station data?

Why? Because NCEI knows how to analyze weather data and you don't. Every time I compare NCEI to Chester County raw data they look damn good. Of course you need to take out the 2 big station moves. NCEI looks even better when data from outside the county is included. The evidence is overwhelming.

[ChescoWx]

46 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Why? Because NCEI knows how to analyze weather data and you don't. Every time I compare NCEI to Chester County raw data they look damn good. Of course you need to take out the 2 big station moves. NCEI looks even better when data from outside the county is included. The evidence is overwhelming.

Cmon Charlie do better than that...what is the base stations or station they are using to validate in their estimation that the raw data was wrong and throw out 66% of reporting stations in some instances/years? You never give real data just altered alternative facts and related data. 

[ChescoWx]

Fixed it for Charlie Why? Because NCEI knows how to analyze change past weather data and you don't

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Cmon Charlie do better than that...what is the base stations or station they are using to validate in their estimation that the raw data was wrong and throw out 66% of reporting stations in some instances/years? You never give real data just altered alternative facts and related data. 

All I am plotting is NCEI and raw coop data. Are you saying that the County COOP data are "altered alternative facts". 

 

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Fixed it for Chesco Why? Because NCEI uses science. Not new science either. Decades old. Bullet-proof due to the large number of stations in the US and the correlation of nearby weather stations. 

 

[ChescoWx]

10 minutes ago, chubbs said:

All I am plotting is NCEI and raw coop data. Are you saying that the County COOP data are "altered alternative facts". 

 

 

That chart does NOT equal the raw data. You continue to simply change past history by making random baseless changes to readings below any available station in the entire county. Or just eliminating select years of data. You simply are showing made up degrees of chilling and warming without any actual support for the degree adjustment that varied with each and every year. Where is the station in the county you are trying to adjust down and or up to???

[chubbs]

45 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That chart does NOT equal the raw data. You continue to simply change past history by making random baseless changes to readings below any available station in the entire county. Or just eliminating select years of data. You simply are showing made up degrees of chilling and warming without any actual support for the degree adjustment that varied with each and every year. Where is the station in the county you are trying to adjust down and or up to???

You shouldn't criticize something you don't understand. The charts are 100% raw data. I've merely subtracted a constant from each station to set each stations to zero at a common point in time, either 1948-1969 or 1950. That removes the differences between stations which allows the year-to-year and long-term trends to be seen more easily. The year-to-year and long-term trends are not changed by the subtraction of a constant from each year.

Phoenixville and Coatesville warm by exactly the same amount either way. West Chester, at the pre-move location,  shows little change in temperature either way.

[ChescoWx]

43 minutes ago, chubbs said:

You shouldn't criticize something you don't understand. The charts are 100% raw data. I've merely subtracted a constant from each station to set each stations to zero at a common point in time, either 1948-1969 or 1950. That removes the differences between stations which allows the year-to-year and long-term trends to be seen more easily. The year-to-year and long-term trends are not changed by the subtraction of a constant from each year.

Phoenixville and Coatesville warm by exactly the same amount either way. West Chester, at the pre-move location,  shows little change in temperature either way.

So for which stations and years did you eliminate the raw data in your efforts to subtract the constant? Below is the actual raw data for comparison to your altered data chart. The raw actual average temperatures have still never been able to eclipse the warming Chester County experienced way back in 1931. Minor cyclical warming is as always all the real raw data shows....

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So for which stations and years did you eliminate the raw data in your efforts to subtract the constant? Below is the actual raw data for comparison to your altered data chart. The raw actual average temperatures have still never been able to eclipse the warming Chester County experienced way back in 1931. Minor cyclical warming is as always all the real raw data shows....

Your chart isn't raw station data. It's a station network average.If the station network is changing the station average will not match raw data from a single station.  Per table below, there are 3 major periods: 1893-1948 = all stations in towns and built-up areas, 1948 - 1970 = transition out of towns, 1971 - present = in suburban or rural. Your chart has spurious cooling in the transition period due to station moves and station start-ups in more rural areas.    

I have plotted raw data from West Chester before the move and Coatesville after the move because there is an overlap period between 1948 and 1969, which allows the stations to have a common baseline or zero point.  This provides a dataset without major station changes from 1893 to present. Phoenixville also provides long-term data at a single location, albeit with periods with other station changes. That's the main difference between my chart and yours. I have taken the major station moves out and you have left them in. When the station moves are removed the pre-1948 data isn't that warm and there isn't a big drop in temperature between 1948 and 1970. 

 

[ChescoWx]

13 hours ago, chubbs said:

Your chart isn't raw station data. It's a station network average.If the station network is changing the station average will not match raw data from a single station.  Per table below, there are 3 major periods: 1893-1948 = all stations in towns and built-up areas, 1948 - 1970 = transition out of towns, 1971 - present = in suburban or rural. Your chart has spurious cooling in the transition period due to station moves and station start-ups in more rural areas.    

I have plotted raw data from West Chester before the move and Coatesville after the move because there is an overlap period between 1948 and 1969, which allows the stations to have a common baseline or zero point.  This provides a dataset without major station changes from 1893 to present. Phoenixville also provides long-term data at a single location, albeit with periods with other station changes. That's the main difference between my chart and yours. I have taken the major station moves out and you have left them in. When the station moves are removed the pre-1948 data isn't that warm and there isn't a big drop in temperature between 1948 and 1970. 

 

 

Your problem is you have zero proof any of those moves required a 2 to 4 degree temperature adjustment which is what took place. As a simple example (small sample size but enough to be clearly directional)  I have analyzed the difference between the relatively rural Coatesville 2W at 660 ft ASL vs Thorndale 290 feet above sea level and in the middle of a sprawling development but only a few nautical miles apart. Even a move from the relatively rural Coatesville 2W to an suburban sprawl development at almost 400 ft asl lower does not result in anywhere close to the magnitude of changes the NCEI tries to apply. 

[chubbs]

8 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Your problem is you have zero proof any of those moves required a 2 to 4 degree temperature adjustment which is what took place. As a simple example (small sample size but enough to be clearly directional)  I have analyzed the difference between the relatively rural Coatesville 2W at 660 ft ASL vs Thorndale 290 feet above sea level and in the middle of a sprawling development but only a few nautical miles apart. Even a move from the relatively rural Coatesville 2W to an suburban sprawl development at almost 400 ft asl lower does not result in anywhere close to the magnitude of changes the NCEI tries to apply. 

I do have proof. I have showed it to you over and over again. It's the raw data from Coatesville or West Chester and other stations, before and after the moves. There is no need to guess or handwave. The raw data allows the effect of the moves to be determined very accurately.

Per chart below the 1946 and 1947 moves cooled Coatesville relative to West Chester and Allentown (ABE). Before the moves Coatesville was close to West Chester. After the moves it was much closer to ABE. I have just pulled and plotted a few stations. NOAA's software checks thousands of stations. So there is much more proof available than what I have shown here. There could be tens or hundreds of stations that shed light on the Chesco moves.

Your post demonstrates that you don't understand what NOAA does. There's nothing arbitrary about it. The raw data alone determines all the adjustments. Only stations that change their position relative to other stations get an adjustment. In the case of the big moves at Coatesville and West Chester the move effect is so large, roughly 2F, that it is impossible to miss. Very clear in the chart below.

[ChescoWx]

13 hours ago, chubbs said:

I do have proof. I have showed it to you over and over again. It's the raw data from Coatesville or West Chester and other stations, before and after the moves. There is no need to guess or handwave. The raw data allows the effect of the moves to be determined very accurately.

Per chart below the 1946 and 1947 moves cooled Coatesville relative to West Chester and Allentown (ABE). Before the moves Coatesville was close to West Chester. After the moves it was much closer to ABE. I have just pulled and plotted a few stations. NOAA's software checks thousands of stations. So there is much more proof available than what I have shown here. There could be tens or hundreds of stations that shed light on the Chesco moves.

Your post demonstrates that you don't understand what NOAA does. There's nothing arbitrary about it. The raw data alone determines all the adjustments. Only stations that change their position relative to other stations get an adjustment. In the case of the big moves at Coatesville and West Chester the move effect is so large, roughly 2F, that it is impossible to miss. Very clear in the chart below.

 

You clearly keep making up arbitrary data. Let's dig into another station you mention above - West Chester PA. So why was West Chester also chilled by between 1.0 and 3.7 degrees each and every year for the 103 years between 1880 and 1982? Chilling the past remains the only clear man made climate changes to our data.

 

 

[forkyfork]

[bdgwx]

22 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Your problem is you have zero proof any of those moves required a 2 to 4 degree temperature adjustment which is what took place.

You've been telling me the problem is the act of making corrections or even just determining if there are biases, errors, or mistakes is fraudulent and should never be done under any circumstance.

[forkyfork]

why does his station drop at noon every day?

 

[ChescoWx]

Charlie so why again are all stations you mentioned Coatesville, West Chester and Phoenixville all clearly chilling the past and warming the current. See the raw vs adjusted for each below.

[ChescoWx]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why does his station drop at noon every day?

 

 

 

 

Fake news as usual - High temp times so far this month 1st - 322p / 2nd 441p/ 3rd 434pm / 4th 2:17pm...be better my man!!

[ChescoWx]

31 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

You've been telling me the problem is the act of making corrections or even just determining if there are biases, errors, or mistakes is fraudulent and should never be done under any circumstance.

Certainly not 3 or 4 degree annual adjustments for years in a row are not supported by any data at all!

[bdgwx]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Certainly not 3 or 4 degree annual adjustments for years in a row are not supported by any data at all!

Stop deflecting and diverting. Is it okay to study data for the existence of biases, errors, or mistakes and make the appropriate corrections or not?

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Fake news as usual - High temp times so far this month 1st - 322p / 2nd 441p/ 3rd 434pm / 4th 2:17pm...be better my man!!

that doesn't address what i said

[ChescoWx]

18 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Stop deflecting and diverting. Is it okay to study data for the existence of biases, errors, or mistakes and make the appropriate corrections or not?

Show me the statistical data and reason and reference any station relatively nearby showed the need for a 3 to 4 degree adjustment during those years...

[ChescoWx]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that doesn't address what i said

No drop yesterday.....

[forkyfork]

what about those other days and why does it happen at the same time

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

No drop yesterday.....

yes there was

[forkyfork]

can you show us a photo of your station and its surroundings? looks like some kind of siting issue

[ChescoWx]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yes there was

nope - see above that is the actual station data

[ChescoWx]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what about those other days and why does it happen at the same time

and what about those days it does not happen???

[forkyfork]

the drop happens slightly before noon and you posted temps from after it

[forkyfork]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

and what about those days it does not happen???

the timing is too consistent to be a coincidence

[ChescoWx]

Another one - more man made climate changes at Allentown Airport - again chill the past and warm the present!! Very conistent man made climate changes across the area!!

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

the timing is too consistent to be a coincidence

maybe that is when the fan aspirated fan kicks in....improves reliability with the VP2 Pro Model