2024 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

It’s that time of the year again. Preseason is fast approaching, and with historic warmth and depth across the basin and a coming La Niña, the stage is being set for a very active year.

My current thought is that the coming season is at a minimum a top 10 season. My deeper analysis doesn’t usually begin until later but today CSU issued their first forecast. April forecasts tend to be the least “accurate” but there is some skill. 

They explicitly forecast a hyperactive season.

 

[WxUSAF]

@Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally???

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally???

Been a while since a solid East Coast threat. Isaias? 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

La Nina + record Atlantic warmth = most named storms and highest ACE on record.

Bonus: cat 5 up the Bay in Sept. 

Bookmark this post. 

[Rtd208]

Blowing hard right up your fannies.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just a couple basic OHC comps. Remember, this is mid-April. This is exceptional warmth.

OHC—look at the depth and expanse of the warmth in the Caribbean and east of the Antilles.

2020

2024

26° C Depth

2020

2024

 

Current SSTs

 

Of course, we know that temps aren’t the only driving factor for activity. One of the key inhibitors of active seasons especially recently has been instability, or lack thereof. This is something to watch closely as we get into the early season period.

 

[Jebman]

The surface ocean temperatures are high. This is a developing La Nina. La Nina is highly conducive to severe hurricane development in the Atlantic.

This would be an excellent time to move from anywhere along the east coast and gulf coast.

This hurricane season will be utterly unprecedented. We're going to see some horrifying hurricanes.

I am so happy I live 350 miles inland. I do not have to worry. I am all cozy and safe from bad hurricanes, and it is too dry here anyway.

Everyone needs to move far inland. The sea surface temps will stay elevated, and they will get much hotter with time. Storms will be unprecedented, not just hurricanes.

[Jebman]

On 4/4/2024 at 11:32 AM, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill cat 5 up the Bay year finally???

Cat 5 up the Bay finally, and very very slow as gargantuan tides pile up in the Bay. This tropical season may go full-on George BM.

Gonna be a ton of excellent YouTube coverage for me to savor!

[Jebman]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:40 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s that time of the year again. Preseason is fast approaching, and with historic warmth and depth across the basin and a coming La Niña, the stage is being set for a very active year.

My current thought is that the coming season is at a minimum a top 10 season. My deeper analysis doesn’t usually begin until later but today CSU issued their first forecast. April forecasts tend to be the least “accurate” but there is some skill. 

They explicitly forecast a hyperactive season.

 

I am in total HEAVEN. Imagine if you can, a storm far worse, than Katrina. Or Andrew.

And Miami is in the Right. Front. Quadrant. Of a 3 mph forward moving hypercane.

Oh the humanity. The A1A a massive parking lot, millions of people frantically trying to move upstate all at once! As the storm lumbers slowly northwestward, clouds growing darker, the torrential rains being driven by a banshee, utterly insane insistent east wind, bashing stuff. Terrified people running, walking, desperate to get as far north as possible, scenes utterly reminiscent of people in NYC trying to run from the WTC dust cloud on Sept 11, 2001. Or people trying to escape from Saigon on April 29, 1975! And top-tier chasers like Josh Morgerman and Reed Timmer, getting the storm coverage of their lives!

The airport would be a total nightmare, thousands of desperate scared to death people trying to get a flight anywhere away from Miami! People storming the airline counters, even storming their way onto planes! Planes somehow managing to take off in the wild hellish maelstrom, getting blown about, end over end, people inside getting all blended up as the incredible hypercanic winds toss big 787's around like so much straw, smashing the planes around, savaging them right into mangled Miami skyscrapers, smashing planes into each other, in the air and on the runways! Local police overwhelmed, just total bedlam, pandemonium. It would for all intents and purposes, be hell on earth. Everywhere in South Florida. Fear unimaginable. As a terrifying unprecedented hurricane with monster 270 mph winds, gusts to 340, unbelievable 55 foot storm surges and tsunami like waves on top of the surge, slowly buzzsawing South Florida into unprecedented oblivion, leaving the entire region uninhabitable for years. Much of south Florida left to rot in the broiling humid heat for decades as Florida takes on about 7 trillion in losses. Much of the central and south part of the Devastation State completely leveled with rotting trash heaps so high, no utilities into the 22nd Century. Investment departs from Florida for at least the next 85 years. Much of what was once known as Miami is ocean, many of the former Florida Keys are ocean. The entire coastline of Florida is completely, utterly, horrifically altered forever! Millions of people fleeing the state, heading for places like Austin Texas because of the damned job market, turning my immediate neighborhood into Bangladesh. Millions upon millions of people moving to Texas because of the horrific leveling of much of central and south Florida by Hurricane Hell.

Mercy was no more in Florida as Hurricane Hell moved at 1 to 3 mph, taking days and days to move up the entire east coast of Hellida, savaging the once beautiful state. The economy was destroyed. The storm lost no strength at all as it moved agonizingly slow all the way up Florida's east coast, leveling everything at least midway east to west in the state. At times, Hurricane Hell wobbled in place, buzzsawing the fook out of Florida. The loss of life was unprecedented. There was no mercy whatsoever and G-d took a holiday in the Med throughout the storm. Frantic, terrified ppl were casually overtaken by the devilish storm, by unbelievable roaring winds that drove people deaf and utterly insane, by tides similar to those found in the Bay of Fundy, by huge battering waves that smashed people into buildings, drove cars and trees and debris right into fleeing persons who only wanted to get north. The 340mph gusts of Hurricane Hell overloaded skyscrapers in numerous Florida metropolises, wreaking scenes of devastation that vividly reminded terrified people of 9-11! Entire buildings smashed down, then were hurled about by titanic winds, waves and Bay of Fundy tides! The storm surge was so bad it reminded people of Banda Aceh. But the storm showed or gave no quarter whatsoever. Black, terrifying clouds sped along, driven by tornadic intensity wind speeds! It kept right on moving real slow, about 1 mile per hour, into Georgia, destroying much of that state as well, bringing incredible winds into north Georgia and the western Carolinas, along with many feet of rainfall. What the storm winds and numerous tornadoes didnt finish off, unprecedented freshwater flooding did finish off. Georgia, the Carolinas, even Virginia were devastated by intense tornadoes and biblical rains.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Preseason is here!

 

[WxWatcher007]

Hard to say just how loaded the potential is this season. It’s not just the thermal environment, which is off the charts. It’s the rapidly developing Nina and orientation of the SSTAs. Hard to see significant limiting factors at this time. 
 

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Imagine having code purple air quality alerts from the Canadian wildfire redux while looking at the forecast cone for category 5 Hurricane William coming up the Bay.