Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

What would be the most reliable short range model to use now?

 

Btw your 12z Euro

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

What would be the most reliable short range model to use now?

 

Btw your 12z Euro

Im not sure which is the  best. I just  look at all of them. Probably tomorrow  am start  loking at the HRRR and RAP

[ldub23]

icon is a  good  hit  for VA weds/thurs.

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

icon is a  good  hit  for VA weds/thurs.

All the globals have something for Wed-AI's also

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

All the globals have something for Wed-AI's also

Yes they do. Hope  it works  out

[Stormpc]

Going to be a busy few weeks into February.  

 

[chris624wx]

17 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

icon is a  good  hit  for VA weds/thurs.

looks like a Southern Slider

[overcautionisbad]

Thats coming straight across the mountains, so it will just dry up

[VARTV]

Wakefield just updated their Hourly Weather Forecast Grid... Now giving me (central Virginia Beach) 8.8," down from 9.0" this morning and 11.5" yesterday...

[migratingwx]

Latest from AKQ

[ldub23]

WPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion

Couple of highlights:

Some of this WAA could be intense as
reflected by strengthening 925-700mb fgen, well aligned into the
deep DGZ (>70% chance of at least 100mb of DGZ depth according to
the SREF). This will support not only expanding snowfall, but
intensifying snowfall such that by 00Z/Sunday at least moderate
snowfall rates should encompass nearly the entirety of the
Carolinas and into northeast GA and southern VA.

WPC probabilities for the event are quite robust for both the
Appalachians and eastern North Carolina, where they are above 50%
for 8+ inches, and 30-50% for 12+ inches. The greatest potential
for more than 12 inches appears to be eastern NC where the
deformation band may pivot, but a widespread 4-8" snowfall appears
likely from southern VA through northern SC, with impactful
accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA, Charlotte and
Raleigh, NC, Columbia, SC, and even into Atlanta, GA. Farther
northeast, WPC probabilities are 30-50% for 4+ inches across the
Cape and Islands.

[jlewis1111]

hope they bust and RIC gets a foot

[Dick_LeBoof]

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

WPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion

Couple of highlights:

Some of this WAA could be intense as
reflected by strengthening 925-700mb fgen, well aligned into the
deep DGZ (>70% chance of at least 100mb of DGZ depth according to
the SREF). This will support not only expanding snowfall, but
intensifying snowfall such that by 00Z/Sunday at least moderate
snowfall rates should encompass nearly the entirety of the
Carolinas and into northeast GA and southern VA.

WPC probabilities for the event are quite robust for both the
Appalachians and eastern North Carolina, where they are above 50%
for 8+ inches, and 30-50% for 12+ inches. The greatest potential
for more than 12 inches appears to be eastern NC where the
deformation band may pivot, but a widespread 4-8" snowfall appears
likely from southern VA through northern SC, with impactful
accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA, Charlotte and
Raleigh, NC, Columbia, SC, and even into Atlanta, GA. Farther
northeast, WPC probabilities are 30-50% for 4+ inches across the
Cape and Islands.

Whoa that's a big update for Richmond!  Is the WPC a national-level group? 

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

Whoa that's a big update for Richmond!  Is the WPC a national-level group? 

Yes. Sort  of the  national NWS office

[jlewis1111]

3 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

Whoa that's a big update for Richmond!  Is the WPC a national-level group? 

Why do you think thats a big update for RIC?

[Dick_LeBoof]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Why do you think thats a big update for RIC?

"..impactful accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA ... " 

In addition to language that seems to indicate they believe the precipitation shield will be more widespread than the current suite of Global models that point to dry air intrusion suppressing snow totals. 

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

"..impactful accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA ... " 

In addition to language that seems to indicate they believe the precipitation shield will be more widespread than the current suite of Global models that point to dry air intrusion suppressing snow totals. 

yea and NWS just dropped us down from wsw to a winter weather advisory. Something not lining up here

[migratingwx]

1 minute ago, Dick_LeBoof said:

"..impactful accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA ... " 

In addition to language that seems to indicate they believe the precipitation shield will be more widespread than the current suite of Global models that point to dry air intrusion suppressing snow totals. 

I wouldn't take that so literally for RIC. We have access to the same data they do and can generally agree that RIC will be on the lower end of accumulations, hence the reason why AKQ downgraded the watch to an advisory for 1-3", which I think it a good call. 

[jlewis1111]

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

[ldub23]

4 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

I wouldn't take that so literally for RIC. We have access to the same data they do and can generally agree that RIC will be on the lower end of accumulations, hence the reason why AKQ downgraded the watch to an advisory for 1-3", which I think it a good call. 

It wouldnt surprise  me  if Ric ends  up with a Warning come tomorrow AM

[jlewis1111]

Interesting run here 

[ldub23]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

Interesting run here 

Can you  post  it?

[jlewis1111]

Just now, ldub23 said:

It wouldnt surprise  me  if Ric ends  up with a Warning come tomorrow AM

check out the 15z SREF above 

[jlewis1111]

Just now, ldub23 said:

Can you  post  it?

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

Confusing. Brief synopsis, lol

[jlewis1111]

Just now, ldub23 said:

Confusing. Brief synopsis, lol

Precip more north

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Interesting run here 

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Can you  post  it?

4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

check out the 15z SREF above 

3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=SREF&area=NAMER&ps=area

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, migratingwx said:

Thanks, very  nice

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Precip more north

Thanks. Maybe the warning will be extended NW tomorrow am

[migratingwx]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

It wouldnt surprise  me  if Ric ends  up with a Warning come tomorrow AM

Quite possible it can expand west, but when they say impactful could still be a 1-3" snowfall depending on how you look at it. It does not mean suddenly RIC is getting 8-12" given most of the available data, which of course is constantly changing.