eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 That Nam run is just about the best run you can have for the RVA & VA Beach area… Everything just backfills perfectly & it’s not north enough to get more dry air pulled into it. Now if it could just actually happen like that .. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 38 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: That Nam run is just about the best run you can have for the RVA & VA Beach area… Everything just backfills perfectly & it’s not north enough to get more dry air pulled into it. Now if it could just actually happen like that .. lol Possible. It's going to whatever it does models or not. In fact models are so all over the place I'm not sure anyone will be certain until its happening It would be funny if Richmond ended up with 9 inches of snow and TV mets had to get on tv and explain why they forecasted 2 inches. Wouldn't be the first time. Lol Doubt it happens like that. The realist in me says like 3 or 4 for me in Chesterfield. Possibly nothing. But also possibly 9 I guess. I'd give nothing higher odds than 9 I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The models are all over the place because they can’t figure out how& where the storm will develop off the coast & how much dry air will get into this storm (from two different directions & sources ) .. It’s definitely going to be boom or bust in many areas… If your in VA beach through Richmond area, that last NAM run is pretty much exactly what we need to happen to really get a nice hit in both places.It forms exactly where we need it to & pushes moisture back into both areas perfectly… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 RRFS jumped north. 11-14 on southside. Lots closer to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Big improvements in short range models. Let’s see if that continues at 12z. They could be on to something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Big improvements in short range models. Let’s see if that continues at 12z. They could be on to something GFS and Euro have another snow chance in 6 days. Right now looks best in central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, ldub23 said: GFS and Euro have another snow chance in 6 days. Right now looks best in central VA Always does at 6 days. 2 days? That’s another story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 WOW the NAM much better for ric and va beach area... Dont discount the moves on the NAM. Its usually the one that gets it right with changes first. Just wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 That being said, still rooting for our coastal brethren. Hope it buries the King Neptune statue on the boardwalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6Z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 RIC yday was barely anything now near 10-11 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6z Euro Looks to be still staying well south with most of the heavy moisture… It’s basically a strung out mess .. Nowhere really getting huge totals.. Ric not much of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: 6z Euro Looks to be still staying well south with most of the heavy moisture… It’s basically a strung out mess .. Nowhere really getting huge totals.. Ric not much of anything the euro is a long range model. Watch short range models now. GFS euro no need to even watch them now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The nam is always the one to pick up on changes short range too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Oh boy all the local mets are pulling totals around here to 0-1 ha that would be funny if the nam is right and then they have to back track and raise the totals up big. They clearly arent looking at the NAM from 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 13 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: the euro is a long range model. Watch short range models now. GFS euro no need to even watch them now True, but the Euro has been pretty consistent on its main moisture being south of us … Hopefully we can finally start to get some model agreement somewhere..Will definitely be pulling for the Nam to be right…Again, it’s pretty close to the best scenario of what we would want for a nice hit in this area… will be interesting to see what wins out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: True but the Euro has been pretty consistent on its main moisture being south of us … Hopefully we can finally start to get some model agreement…Will definitely be pulling for the Nam to be right again it’s pretty much the best scenario of what we would want for a nice hit in this area… will be interesting to see what wins out… nam nailed last weekends storm with precip amounts euro is shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z run of the nam will be huge. Lets see if 6z was a one off or the real deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I’m intrigued to see this evolve today! One thing is for sure…whoever is just to the north of the cutoff is going to be screaming at the radar returns to no avail. That actually might be us in RIC lol but we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The cutoff line wherever that sets up is going to be brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter High/ low predictions as of 7am out of Wakefield Richmond area. Low 0 high 7 Current Prediction. 1 inch Virginia Beach. Low 1 high 12 Current Prediction 8 inches By around 8am tomorrow we should really be able to see how the cold /dry air is affecting this system & also see the coastal start to take shape… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR looks like it will be an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR made a big jump north. Snow line was at the NC/VA border, now up to RIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 HRRR made a big jump north. Snow line was at the NC/VA border, now up to RICHRR was a dumpster fire for anything N of the NC/VA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: HRRR made a big jump north. Snow line was at the NC/VA border, now up to RIC I can’t seem to find it yet can you post the map readouts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z NAM is running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12z hrrr is a no go and a shut out except for NE NC. We need the coastal low to hit us like NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: I can’t seem to find it yet can you post the map readouts.. Again, you will need to click the link, then the tiny box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, D-Money said: 12z hrrr is a no go and a shut out except for NE NC. We need the coastal low to hit us like NAM is showing. My mistake. I was looking at it backward, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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